Joe’s Weather Blog: More delightful days…

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Overall this is going to be a pretty decent week of weather around the area. There is a small rain chance during either later tomorrow night or early Wednesday, but overall not much is expected locally as a pretty harmless cold front comes through.

The main story in the big scheme though is the mild weather. Yes, there was some patchy frost in the region over the weekend as expected, but it wasn’t too widespread. It really was a fabulous weekend of weather and today is going to be just as nice.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and breezy with highs in the lower-to-mid-70s.

Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the 50s.

Tuesday: Sunny and warm for late October with highs well into the 70s. Windy as well with gusts to near 30 mph or higher.

Wednesday: Variable clouds, small AM rain chances. Highs well into the 60s.

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Discussion:

It was a fabulous weekend in the area wasn’t it. There were reports of frost in the region, but as mentioned and predicted nothing too widespread.

The satellite picture for this morning is a clear one in most of the Plains.

There isn’t really any significant weather coming towards the area for a while it appears. There may be something over the weekend but typically in October, you can get some dry fronts move through since surface moisture is typically lower. Dew points this morning are in the mid-40s and that type of dry air goes all the way down into Texas. That though will be changing heading into the weekend and next week. Dew points will be increasing and that will mean some rain chances developing.

The main feature this week is an upper-level storm that will be moving into the Plains. This will force a cold front through the region. On Wednesday, there should be a nice system in Nebraska:

Here is a look up around 18,000 feet up at the upper-level storm

At the surface, a cold front will be moving through the region during the first part of the day.

Yeah that’s snow in the western part of of South Dakota.

The front will usher in seasonable air into the area. That’s about it though.

This will push another dry air mass into the region. Thursday looks very nice too.

One thing to watch is a small, but potentially dynamic system coming into the area on Friday. A few showers are possible with that.

Next weekend though, things will be changing as a southerly air flow sets up and instead of having a drier air mass in place, the dew points will start popping into the 60s.

Notice the change of the dew points from Thursday to Sunday. Swipe right for Thursday and left for Sunday.

That will be a spring-type air mass coming back northwards and it may stick around into the early part of next week, at least through Tuesday.

With a spring-type air mass comes more heat and more potential instability. So if there could be some sort of disturbance coming in the region with increasing parameters, thunderstorms might be an issue at some point next week, including perhaps some stronger storms. It’s a long ways off and there are numerous other things that have to work out, but if nothing else, the dew points should be there. So let’s watch Tuesday through Thursday next week for something.

One thing for sure: It’s been a mild first half of October.

See all the 1s, 2s, and 3s? Those are the rankings for the warmest starts to October. All the 1s are the warmest on record. There are a lot of 1s out there aren’t there?

Sheila Jackson out towards Crystal Lake has the feature photo of the day.

Joe

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