Joe’s Weather Blog: More summer heat…and maybe just maybe some rain (MON-8/9)

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Thought I’d try and get something to you today…just so that you have a better idea of what’s coming up over the next few days…there are a few wrinkles that need to be worked out with regards to the rain chances.

Also there is good news for those who hate the more intense heat and humidity that we’re enduring these last couple of days. I expect relief to come in the form of a cold front for the end of the week and hopefully setting us up for a decent weekend in the area with less hot days and also lower dew points meaning more comfortable air!

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Forecast:

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices between 105-110°. There MAY be some scattered storms around in the morning, mainly SE of the Metro and again later in the day or evening

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot. Highs in the mid to upper 90s.

Thursday: Same…there may be some storms later in the evening or overnight ahead of the cold front coming into the area.

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Discussion:

Hope you enjoy hot weather because there is a lot more of that coming this week. One thing for sure is that in many areas things are really drying out. I did some calculations for total rains since July 1st…now almost 6 weeks worth of time…and the news isn’t so great for parts of the Metro.

Over the last 30 days…here is the % of normal rains in the area…as a rough starting point.

Not so great. That deficit in JOCO and other parts of the area is real. Take a look at some of these actual totals.

KCI: 2.9″

Olathe Executive: 1.50″

Olathe-Industrial: 1.04″

Lees Summit: 1.89″

Pleasant Hill: 3.47″

Sedalia: 3.84″

St Joseph: 2.14″

Lawrence” 2.5″

Topeka: 3.59″

We average about 5.8″ of moisture in that time frame…so yeah it’s drying out.

It’s not unusual though…we’ve been pretty fortunate to get some timely rains over the past few months as things were just drying out. Perhaps we can get lucky again.

It won’t be because of a lack of moisture though. Dew points today are in the mid 70s…higher in parts of MO…so the surface moisture is certainly there.

Aloft the atmosphere now is seasonally moist…nothing too crazy.

Though it will be getting even more saturated by this time tomorrow night (TUE).

Nothing out of control…although some models are a bit soupier. What we need though is some sort of trigger to get things in motion.

There are a couple of candidates. One would be a weak front/wind shift that will be lurking NW of the Metro tomorrow afternoon.

Can that front interact with a lot of heat and instability and create storms? IF so will those storms drift and generate new storms closer to the Metro. There is at least a chance of that happening. Outflows could be beneficial in creating new development with such weak wind fields above us.

So that’s one way we can get some storms closer to home.

The other way is is if some sort of mid level wave/disturbance can help get things into motion…and that potential is showing up…perhaps better this evening for tomorrow PM

Lift at the 700 mb level or around 10,000 feet up

See that red blob? That is a nice wave/disturbance. That could help trigger more storms…or perhaps the storms that form are developing their own wave…so when looking at that…I’m somewhat more bullish this evening for storm chances, especially from the Metro northwards tomorrow PM/evening.

As is I have a 40% chance of any one spot getting rain tomorrow. That could go up as the overnight data comes in.

Another chance, comes on late Thursday night into Friday AM which I’m bullish about as well. The reason…heat breaking cold fronts typically create rain…and in some cases lots of rain…so I think that has upside potential.

So there will be weather to track this week.

Meanwhile Monday was an active weather day in northern IL.

and this is just through 8PM

The red T’s are tornado reports. 14 through 8PM.

Just shows you things are still happening in the world of weather aside from all the wildfire smoke in the atmosphere.

The feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in IA. Hot air balloons from the National balloon Classic in Indianola IA on 8-2-21

Joe

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