KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A cold front will be moving into the region today. It will provide us with both a temporary heat break and also a nice dew point break too. This will feel better to us tomorrow.

The issue is the rain situation, which is starting to get more and more noticeable on the south side of the metro. These blue skies and dry conditions have taken a toll on the grass at least from downtown southwards.

The front itself may not do much for storm chances today. There is only a slight chance of a shower/storm after 4 p.m. There will be another chance overnight. That risk is likely to affect areas south of Kansas City, perhaps the southern section of the metro may luck out. It will be close. The thing is if we miss out on these skimpy chances today/tonight, there is no clear cut chance showing up for awhile.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs 90-95 degrees. Small chance of a storm later today.

Tonight: Fair skies and turning a bit cooler. Small chance of a storm on the south side and southwards. Lows in the mid-60s.

Tomorrow: Actually pretty nice. Highs in the mid-80s.

Wednesday: Warmer after a pleasant start. Highs back to near 90 degrees.

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Discussion:

There is talk about a big heat wave showing up. Not sure at this point I buy anything aside from typically mid-July heat that should move back in later this week… more on that in a bit.

Today is sort of interesting as we have a July cold front coming into the region.

The air behind the front is cooler. The dew points aren’t drastically lower, but at least there should be a noticeable change tomorrow in how things feel. Here is the 8 a.m. surface map showing the front:

One noteworthy thing about the heat ahead of the front is the consistent heat that has been hitting Texas this summer. It’s been pretty rough down there. Yesterday in Austin, Texas, Camp Mabry tied an all-time July record with 110 degrees going back to July 2018. San Antonio tied a record high for the date at 106 degrees.

Other records fell as well including College Station hitting 111 degrees.

In the last two months, some cities down there and elsewhere have never been hotter.

The power grid people in Texas have asked for conservation this afternoon and this evening because of the strain on the grid.

This front won’t provide any relief to areas south of the Red River it appears, and aside from some isolated convection, they are just “in it” for awhile.

Our weather will be more variable, leaning warm to hot in the big picture, but we’re coming to the hottest time of the year around these parts. From mid-July to early August, our average high tops out at 89 degrees and that needs to be remembered.

The GFS has been cranking the heat to extreme levels in a model bias scenario that’s been played out for days now. It’s falsely over-drying the atmosphere at the surface, eliminating dew points to extreme levels and allowing the surface temperatures to go ballistic. It’s extreme heat solutions (which it’s starting to back away from to some degree) are unrealistic and are doubtful to happen. For example, there were some days where it was forecasting 105-110-degree highs around these parts.

No.

Meanwhile, the overall pattern is hot, but in my opinion at least there may be periodic breaks in the heat. Why? Well this was sort of detailed last week as the hot weather generator. The area of higher atmospheric heights at 18,000 feet indicating warmer temperatures is more towards the Rockies than the Plains. Take a look at the five-day average of this concept for Friday through next Wednesday. See the core of the higher heights out west?

We are in north-northwest flow aloft and that could lead to periodic opportunities for us to get wind shifts or storm chances to roll out of the western Plains.

Notice as we go lower in the atmosphere to about 5,000 from 18,000 feet: the temperature anomalies. The core of the highest anomalies for mid-July are up towards the northern Plains.

Then at the surface, again the core of the worst heat is farther north:

We’re still above average, but odds are low-to-upper 90s are what’s coming. Again, within reason for the hottest time of the year.

That area of higher atmospheric heights out west though may start moving towards the east later on NEXT week. That remains to be seen. If that happens, then we get into it in a big way. The EURO model is showing this potential, again this would be for later next week.

This is a five-day average from next Wednesday through the 25th.

Here are the anomalies at the surface:

Notice how these surface anomalies look in this five-day period compared to the previous one I showed you earlier in the blog.

It’s been four years going back to July of 2018 since we’ve hit 100 degrees officially at KCI. Let’s see what happens. A lot of it may be determined by the rain we see or don’t see over the next 10 days. Areas on the north side have had more rain than areas on the south side these last few weeks it seems.

The south side of the metro is starting to “bake out.” The soil moisture is decreasing and the grass is browning out in many areas. It’s easier for the south side it seems to get a few degrees hotter than the north part of the metro right now. So while the area needs more rain in the big picture, the south side needs it a bit more.

More on that situation later this week.

Wonderful shot out towards Lake Perry from @KansasHoops the other day.

Next update on the blog will be Wednesday

Joe