Joe’s Weather Blog: No record warmth but lots of ups and downs (FRI-12/3)

Weather Blog

We have our Winter Special tomorrow morning at 11AM. All 5 of us throw in our ideas for how much snow is coming this season. Set your DVR!

Meanwhile…we recorded it on a day when we set a record high. We were one of dozens of cities in the Plains, Rockies and the western US that saw record warmth. Almost every city in KS saw record highs. Too many to type out really. 70s for everyone. Today won’t be that warm and we won’t get to 74° which is the record for the date and the month actually…but we’ll still be well into the 60s.

This will change tomorrow as cooler air comes in later tonight. We should rebound Sunday and then turn colder as the game gets going Sunday evening. You’ll feel this change between tailgating and the game so be prepared for the increasing winds…which may gust to 30+ MPH.

There is a system worth watching on Tuesday and another one later next weekend.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and mild. Highs in the mid to upper 60s

Tonight: Clear and turning cooler with lows down into the mid 30s,. Breezy as well.

Tomorrow: not as warm but partly cloudy. Highs around 50°

Sunday: Variable clouds. There may be a few sprinkles in the morning. Windy and warmer with highs back into the lower 60s. Turning colder though later in the afternoon with increasing winds at night.

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Discussion:

After the dozens of record highs yesterday in the Plains yesterday today won’t be quite as prolific for records but still by December standards…not too shabby. These are the areas that have a decent chance of tying or setting records. The red numbers represent the forecast highs today.

Certainly not a day for snow though…and so what else is new.

So far this late fall and early winter…snow has mostly been absent in the Plains…and Rockies. Denver continues to establish a record each day for the latest first accumulating snow. They too were in the mid 70s yesterday. Take a look at the season so far.

So far this year…

and closer to the Plains…

Through the end of next week…the EURO and the GFS are more or less about the same.

There is a weak system that bears some watching, especially in northern MO for later Tuesday. It may generate some snow or a mix…perhaps even farther south too but it appears to be pretty minor.

The main thing will be a shot of colder air coming later Sunday into Monday. You can see that more clearly as we go up to about 5,000 feet or so…these are the temperature anomlaies.

For later Monday

That colder air will hang around for a couple of days before we moderate again later next week.

Several models are trying to bring an accumulating snow here NEXT weekend…they’ve done this for a couple of days…and the potential seems legit. We’ll be warming up again later in the week…perhaps back into the 50s.

The system next weekend is interesting I think…but obviously 7+ days out. So we’ll deal more with that next week.

If you’re wondering about our lack of snow locally…not too unusual at this point…now IF nothing happens next weekend…then we’ll dive deeper into the numbers…but I did do some research yesterday regarding our first 1/10″ accumulating snow…and the average date going back to 1950 is November 28th. Our 1st average 1″ of snow is December 15th…so IF something happens next weekend…that would about make sense climatologically.

Have a great weekend!. The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson

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