Joe’s Weather Blog: Periodic rain chances into Saturday night (THU-9/30)

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Yesterday more or less went according to plan with more clouds and just a few showers out there. There wasn’t much activity and what was out there was pretty minor around the KC area. Most had sprinkles or nothing at all. That was expected.

Today may not be that different although IF we can warm up a bit more this afternoon and the sun to start the day may be a sign of that…we could see some additional storms bubble up in random fashion around parts of the area. Again some will stay dry all day long.

Tomorrow may be a repeat of today and then Saturday actually offers the best chance of rain. Not all day though…so my thoughts this week of PLENTY of dry intervals to do things outside continues to be a good thought.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with scattered storms possible later this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s

Tonight: That activity wanes…mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 60s

Tomorrow: Same with highs in the upper 70s although there should be more clouds around

Saturday: Showers are possible to likely but not all day with highs in the mid 70s

Sunday: Should be improving as the morning moves along. Cooler with highs in the lower 70s

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Discussion:

So things are sort of rolling along. The month is over today and it will go down as a mild month of September. We’re 3.3° above average at this point.

Temperatures in the eastern 2/3rds of the country are running mild in the Plains and Great Lakes area. The SE is on the more average to coolish side for Sepetember

Here are the pretty colors to correlate that too.

I noticed on my way to work yesterday coming up I-35 that the fall colors are starting to show. They seem to be muted again this season for many trees. Lots of brownish colors and not a lot of vibrancy so far. Perhaps the dry weather of late is a factor to some extent. The younger trees under 5 years old are showing some signs of stress because of the dryness.

We’re starting to see a few signs of drought popping with the changing leaves in southern MO and an slow increase in the “abnormally” dry weather around our area.

I saw these graphics yesterday from the NWS in LaCrosse, WI. If you want to dive into the whys of the of leaf color changes.

So something you may want to save and show the kids down the road.

Our peak colors typically show up later this month locally..more towards the week of Halloween or thereabouts.

The longer term trends, at least to start the 1st half of October look overall to be average to mild most days. There should be more significant changes later in the month as is typical.

As we move through the middle of September into the mid October time frame…the weather is typically pretty nice. The average temperature in that span is around 62.9°. Here is the way things have gone over the past 20 or so years.

As far as the weather goes locally for the next few days…again while there may be rain at times there are lots of dry times coming as well. That includes both today and tomorrow. We have quite a bit of sunshine this morning and while clouds will move in towards lunch I still think we get to around 80° or perhaps a notch or two warmer this afternoon. Scattered storms/showers are possible in haphazard fashion this afternoon…and again tomorrow afternoon it appears. There appears to be a disturbance that will come up from SE KS this afternoon and early this evening that should set off some activity. We also will have some instability to tap into as well…so while severe weather isn’t expected there may be some locally heavy transient downpours out there after 3PM or so.

Not a lot of change for tomorrow although we should have more clouds around. Perhaps fewer downpours in the PM although some lighter rains are possible.

This lingers through Saturday before breaking on Sunday and we should be in better shape in the afternoon.

A couple of other tidbits for you…

I also think Bret in 2017 formed that far south too but these are pretty rare in the Atlantic Basin

Meanwhile Sam is churning along.

and while severe weather isn’t expected anytime soon locally…here is a look at the nationwide tornado count so far.

The feature photo today is from Sheila Jackson

Joe

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