Joe’s Weather Blog: Quick hitting overnight storms + more heat (FRI-8/20)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Happy Friday! This will be a short blog (for a change) since I have the day off but since there are potentially storms on the way overnight into early Saturday I wanted to get something out there for you. Plus Henri is definitely a thing now for the northeast part of the country.

The big picture though is a hot and humid pattern settling into the region after tomorrow. Next week looks pretty ripe around here, although parts of the area may have some storm issues every so often. Higher dew points and temperatures will likely send the heat index next week well above 100°.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and seasonably hot. A little more humid as well. Highs near 90°. Overall storm risk is low through 8 p.m. in Kansas City.

Tonight: Main timing of storms is 9 p.m.-3 a.m. or so then clearing out towards daybreak. Lows in the 70° range.

Tomorrow: Actually not too bad with somewhat drier (lower dew point) air in the afternoon. Highs still well into the 80s.

Sunday: There is a chance of a few storms at some point as the heat and humidity really fight their way back towards the area. Highs near 90°.

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Discussion:

The cold front that really will end up being just a dew point front as it comes our way, is in the western Plains this morning.

That front will be moving through the area overnight tonight. As it comes eastwards, the green numbers above showing the dew points in the 70s in many areas of the Plains will help to fuel storms developing west of the region later today and this evening. Those storms out towards northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas may be on the strong-to-severe side.

The Storm Prediction Center has this area outlined for the risk of stronger storms.

That’s some pretty ripe air on that surface map. So it should lead to some pretty high instability levels later today as temperatures heat up to near 90°

Storms that form out there will be moving towards the east-northeast while the whole line moves eastwards. Typically, when this happens the strongest storms are within a few hours of the line developing which should be west of here by a good distance. Then as the storms all fight for the same instability, there is a slow weakening trend as they move eastwards.

I think the main threats locally in the Kansas City region would be 30-55 mph winds and perhaps some pea-to-quarter-sized hail. So there may well be a few warnings issued, but right now for Kansas City at least, I’m not expecting a lot of severe weather at this point. Something to watch though later this evening.

Areas farther west have the stronger risk of bigger storms I think.

The front will blow through towards 3 a.m. or so, and tomorrow will be a few degrees less warm (seasonable really) but the dew points should be very tolerable in the afternoon especially, so it will be a more comfortable day leading into a nice evening for Kansas City (tomorrow).

Then on Sunday the moisture (higher dew points) will be on the return and that means that at some point in the day (perhaps in the late afternoon), there may be a few storms bubbling up as the heat and humidity really build out west of here.

Next week just looks hot and humid. Higher dew points and higher temperatures.

Here is the five-day average temperature anomalies at around 5,000 feet or so for next week.

This is a hot week I think with many days near 95°. There may be some storm/cloud issues at some point next week and I don’t think the entire week will be dry everywhere. There should be storms drifting around, especially in northern Missouri.

Finally there’s Henri.

This is now a big-ticket storm surge/rain maker and wind issue for the northeast part of the country and especially New England.

Actual hurricanes up there are somewhat unusual. Usually storms are weakening in the less warm waters off the northeast part of the country.

The highest winds at this point perhaps gusting to over 75 mph would be along the coastal areas of New England.

Surge flooding will be a big issue as well.

It was 30 years ago yesterday that Hurricane Bob mad landfall in New England.

Right now, the core of Henri is expected to pass close to Narragansett Bay in New England. This could send surge up that bay as well creating more issues.

The team will be giving you updates on this over the weekend. Sunday late afternoon and evening is the best chance of landfall right now.

Kevin Cade has the feature photo of the day with the storm clouds and a nice moon from the other day.

Joe

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