KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A disturbance is moving through the region this morning and rain with some thunderstorms will be around over the next couple of hours before moving out near lunch. The rains are heavier towards the south of the metro, but the rains are welcome.

It’s been a rainy last several days as illustrated in yesterday’s blog. While the rains this morning aren’t too heavy for many areas, they represent one of the last chances of rain, aside from Sunday, that we may see for awhile it appears.

Hotter days are returning and now with 2-7 inches of moisture in the ground, that will also result in much higher dew points and the return of the typical summer heat and humidity regime that we’ve sort of skipped this week.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Rain ends then clouds and perhaps some late day sunshine. Highs may still recover into the lower 80s.

Tonight: Fair skies and turning cooler. Actually pretty nice tomorrow morning with lows in the low-to-mid-60s.

Tomorrow: Nicer day overall, somewhat lower dew points, highs in the low 80s.

The weekend: Next chance of rain perhaps Saturday night or Sunday. Highs in the lower-to-mid-80s.

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Discussion:

Let’s start with the latest drought report which accounts for conditions through Tuesday morning I believe. In the last couple of days, we’ve seen more needed rains locally even off towards the east of the metro. My thought is that next week this area will see drought improvement show up in the map itself.

The main thing is the large expansion of the extreme drought conditions from D2 to D3 in southern Missouri and southwestern Missouri.

Persistent days of 100-105 degrees have taken their toll down there, although there were some areas of rain yesterday in far southern Missouri with some stronger storms.

Here are the 48-hour totals through 9:30 a.m. this morning:

You can see at least some areas of southern Missouri have received some rain.

Data this morning is still rather hopeful for significant rains down there:

That’s a lot of rain, and there are some indications in the very juicy atmosphere that there is actually a not zero chance of some flooding down there… can you imagine? The terrain could handle a lot of moisture due to the drought but if it comes too fast, that could be an issue for some very localized areas in southern Missouri.

On the Kansas side, we saw the “abnormally dry” conditions expand a bit farther west in the metro. These will likely be eliminated next week as a result of this weeks rain totals.

After another chance Sunday morning (we’re fine on Saturday), then our typical summer pattern establishes itself heading into next week and indications are that the head will be ratcheted up heading through the first half of the month.

as we likely dry out again.

While I’m not expecting 100 degrees with this heat, low-to-upper 90s are more likely in most areas, and with dew points into the 70s at times, that will send the heat index values into the sultry range.

The chances of a heat index of at least 105 degrees.

By the way, another summer day, another devastating night of flooding rains, this time in southeast Kentucky, an area that is not a stranger to bad flooding and devastation from it.

OK that’s it for today, iffy blog chance tomorrow.

The feature photo comes from Chip Houser taken the other day.

Joe