Joe’s Weather Blog: Relief on Sunday with some rain (for some) (FRI-7/30)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s as if there is a temperature ceiling at 98° around these parts. Yesterday was the fourth time this year we hit 98° and stopped at KCI. Downtown hit 99° again. We just can’t “officially” get to the triple digits and yesterday might have been the best chance at getting there.

The heat index yesterday soared to around 112°. It was worse in northern Missouri where at one point in the afternoon the heat index made it to around 120° in Maryville, Missouri. It was the hottest in the country from that standpoint at that time I believe.

Relief comes somewhat tomorrow, but moreso on Sunday. If you don’t get needed rain tomorrow, you may not see rain until closer to next weekend. Things will be drying out fast, as they are now.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny this morning with clouds building and storms (scattered) possible this afternoon and this evening. A few of them may contain some heavy rain and stronger winds. They won’t be moving much. Feast or famine with the rain it appears. Highs in the mid-90s.

Tonight: Scattered storms fade then partly cloudy. Lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with some rain possible. The coverage doesn’t look too widespread. Not as hot with highs in the mid-to-upper-80s.

Sunday: Nicer with highs in the mid-80s.

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Discussion:

119°. That’s what it felt like in parts of northern Missouri yesterday just ahead of a cold front. Actually the dew points were in the 80s there. Not surprising because of the way the corn crop grows like crazy in Iowa and other areas. The corn crop actually influences the weather to some extent through the process of transpiration, the “exhalation” of water vapor through leaves. All living plants and trees do this, but up there it’s on steroids with the corn crop.

The dew points will actually commonly be in the 80-85° range in parts of western Iowa and other areas in the upper Midwest. Anywhere there is a LOT of corn. This crazy high surface moisture can send the heat index soaring when combined with near 100° weather, hence the 120° heat index up there!

Down here, we had dew points in the mid-to-upper-70s and with upper 90s. We had a index of close to 115°. Bad enough.

There was a weak front that moved into northern Missouri sparking some heavy downpours across northern and northeastern Missouri. 1-2-plus inch totals were common in northeast Missouri.

The front sort of weakened and moved into the Kansas City metro uneventfully last night. Our winds this morning are nearly calm. The dew points today will again be elevated and while it may not be near 100°, it won’t be that far away really. So with the remnants of the boundary around this afternoon (in very weak form), there may be enough irritation to the atmosphere to create at least some spotty storms near the State Line area after 3-5 p.m. or so. You’ll get a good sense about this potential if you start noticing building cumulus clouds out there after lunch.

The true push of cooler air comes tomorrow afternoon. So we heat up again tomorrow well into the 80s on the north side of the Metro with 90s on the south side of the Metro. The instability will build again, however the better storm chances (and there may be some stronger ones) may remain more south of the metro towards and south of US 50. Should that occur, somehow after four days of nasty summer heat with a relatively decent cold front moving through, the metro may not get much rain from this.

The weather will actually turn delightful starting Saturday night around the area and points north. Cooler and drier air will be moving south and it’s the recipe for great days Sunday into the middle of next week. The issue is that we’ll really be drying out.

The NAM shows this for the rainfall situation later today into tomorrow.

The hi-res NAM has this idea. All that rain in the Kansas City area is tied to whatever happens this afternoon/early evening.

The EURO has this:

Again the main coverage is towards northern and northeast Missouri as another complex comes out of the northeast and moves there way overnight and tomorrow AM.

Finally, there was quite the severe weather outbreak yesterday in parts of Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. NJ may have set a record for their highest number of tornadoes in a day for that state.

The tornado reports should fill in in New Jersey today as damage is assessed. There was a nasty looking supercell on radar going through small parts of central New Jersey with debris indicators showing up. Probably mostly trees though.

W’s are wind, T’s are tornadoes

That’s it for today.

The feature photo comes from DeAnna Blair.

Joe

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