Joe’s Weather Blog: Running towards 100° with relief on the way (THU-6/17)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Clouds are starting the day in the region and these will be important today because they should help to hold back on the 100° heat (for today) at least. Humidity levels will be increasing a bit today. And with increasing sunshine after lunch and a bit more of a breeze developing, we should still see highs rebound well into the 90s. We should see the hottest day of the season so far this afternoon and then tomorrow should be even hotter.

Rain chances aren’t overly high for the next few days. There again were some overnight showers on the northside of the metro. KCI snuck in a couple of hundredths of an inch again. Most stayed dry though. My inclination is that the better rain chances will come towards Sunday night or Monday with some significantly cooler weather coming into the area to start the week.


Forecast:

Today: Cloudy this morning, then decreasing afternoon clouds. Highs in the mid-to-upper-90s.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy skies and warm with lows in the upper 70s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and extremely hot with highs near 100°.

The weekend: Hot and humid with variable clouds and highs in the mid-90s. There may be some showers north of the metro at some point later Friday night or Saturday, especially in northern Missouri.


Discussion:

We start this morning with last night’s sunset. It was a pretty one and because of smoke in the atmosphere (smoke that came down from Montana) the sunset was impressive to watch. Ben got the drone up and shot these neat pictures.

I had noticed the rapid increase in the smoke on the satellite images late yesterday afternoon.

So that was neat to forecast and tell our viewers about so that they could get some great pictures.

Onwards.

Clouds this morning are going to be our friend through the early afternoon. They should slow down the heat up today and allow bearable conditions to continue into the early afternoon as temperatures head up through the 80s.

There has been some rain across the northland and northern Missouri as well. This was connected to a small complex of storms in Iowa last night that I showed you dropping south-southeast.

The far left side of it sort of got its act together a bit and with strengthening winds aloft, some lift has been generated, helping the showers develop. Again, pretty light amounts and they should continue to fall apart as the morning moves along.

This afternoon the winds will be increasing from the southwest. That, combined with the hotter air mass, will allow a pretty rapid heat up to occur. Yesterday, we made it up to 93°. Today we should be somewhere between 94 and 98° officially at KCI. The strengthening PM winds will be a big factor in getting temperatures hotter than yesterday.

Tomorrow may be the day that we hit 100°. It’s again pretty unusual to do that in June. It’s been nine years sine we last hit 100 in June and three years since we last hit 100 at all. So 100s around here are pretty unusual. The 100s were a dime a dozen yesterday out towards the west in Kansas. Concordia tied their record high I think at 103°. Manhattan hit at least 103° as well.

With the benefit of more sunshine, we should be set I think to make a real run towards 100°. KCI, as you know, seems to have a tough time getting there sometimes, especially with the green grass and the fact that the soils aren’t baked out, so we’ll see.

The only thing keeping the 100s at bay over the weekend will be variable clouds in the region. The front that a few days ago could’ve dropped things down a bit looks to whimper out before it arrives. There may be some storms across northern Missouri and we’ll see if they can through any outflows our way to create some convection.

We may well be waiting for a stronger front to come this way. Most data suggests this will happen at some point on Monday. The EURO is the slowest with this keeping Monday pretty warm while the other models are quicker and allowing Monday to be only in the 70s during the afternoon after some sort of very early morning high in the 80s.

The will be a relief though for a few days next week: morning lows will drop again into the 50s. This will actually be a nice shot of cooler air thanks to a rather strong upper-level system across Canada that will be injecting cooler air through the northern Plains and into the Midwest. You can see this better by going up to about 5,000 feet and looking at the temperature anomalies. This is for Tuesday afternoon:

That’s some cool June air. How long it lasts though remains to be seen beyond Wednesday morning and whether or not we get a reinforcing shot of cooler air later next week. Data this morning is showing a popping “ridge” across the Pacific Northwest into western Canada. IF this happens…there would be a corresponding “dip” in the flow towards the upper Midwest and Northeast…allowing colder air to drop southwards and southeastwards.

If that ridge out west is flatter (possible for sure) then the flow won’t buckle as much which means hotter weather locally I think. Again, this is more than a week out, but something interesting.

Meanwhile back to the current… a Heat Advisory is in effect for the region today and will likely continue tomorrow too.

The counties that are highlighted in orange are the heat advisory counties. Basically the heat index will be between 100-105° or so this afternoon and tomorrow as well.

It won’t be as extreme this weekend, although the dew points may be a bit higher, but it will be a hot and mostly dry weekend.

Got a nice sunrise picture yesterday.

Joe

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