Joe’s Weather Blog: Searing heat out west…with late week rains here (MON-6/14)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The first part of June has been warm in the region. We’re running about 4° above average and high temperatures have been averaging around 87° so far this month. To be fair though, in terms of the first 13 days of the month (through yesterday) this is only the 23rd-warmest start to the month. Last year it was even warmer: 13th-warmest start. This week, through Friday, will add to that as highs soar into the 90s every day it appears, and the morning lows start trending up as well.

The dry weather for some is turning somewhat critical. Some areas, like my house, missed out on most of the rain this past Friday. I had a couple of hundredths of an inch while others had flooding rains. So yesterday I started to drag the sprinkler around the yard to try and keep the grass from drying out too much. I typically put up a fight in June… then sort of give it up for the rest of the summer depending on the rain opportunities.

The good news is that a two-three day wetter pattern will be developing this weekend, starting Friday night. Some locally heavy rains will be possible somewhere in that timeframe for some areas too.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and hot. Not overly muggy with highs in the low-to-mid-90s.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and hot with highs in the lower 90s.

Wednesday: About the same but you’ll start to notice the muggy factor more and more.

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Discussion:

So yeah, it’s going to be hot around here, just as it has been for most of the month really. It could be worse though… the southwest U.S. is going to sizzle this week with the potential for record highs and maybe in some areas, all time highs, which is impressive anytime.

Here is a look at Phoenix and Las Vegas: roasty toasty out there.

Phoenix, AZ
Las Vegas, NV

This is all the result of a significant, even for summer, strong ridge of heat that extends in the atmosphere across the western U.S.

You can see this as we go up to about 18,000 feet. The dome of the hotter air aloft extends from the southwest all the way up into central Canada. On either side of that, there is a dip in the flow which represents cooler air along the Pacific northwest and eastern seaboard.

Even the typically not-as-hot northern reaches of Arizona will sizzle as well as the risk of fires continues out there.

I think the records are safe though in Phoenix for all time though:

And likely for June as well:

As mentioned they’ll be on the record watch in Las Vegas too.

So the truly nasty heat will be out west but we’ll be dabbling in it with highs 90-95 into Wednesday.

On Thursday, the hotter air will sort of “flop” across the Plains and move through our region to some extent. Our highs here will pop into the mid-to-perhaps-upper-90s for some.

You can sort of see that “flopping” aspect as an upper-level storm moves through southern Canada and pushes the hotter air somewhat towards the southeast.

18,000 foot map for Thursday

So Thursday into Friday appears to be the hottest days this week.

Last summer, the hottest we ever got on several occasions was 94°. We’ll likely exceed that for a day or two this week I think.

The weekend won’t be as hot. Rain chances also will be developing as the pattern aloft sort of alters enough to allow disturbances to track towards the east-southeast and east, giving up storm chances. This starts to happen later Friday into Friday night it appears.

It’s not out of the question that severe storms are going to be possible locally as well. Perhaps something on Friday night, winds being the main threat, then perhaps again something on Father’s Day. We’ll see how things come together for that, though it’s a long ways off. There won’t be a lot of wind speed aloft on Sunday but there wasn’t a lot last Friday and look what happened.

Next week, at least to start appears to be cooler and overall potentially a bit more active to some extent.

That’s it for today. Next update will be on Wednesday. Stay cool! The feature photo comes from Lisa Brice in Clinton County, Missouri.

Joe

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