It’s another very windy start to the day in the region with gusts already 30-35 MPH and likely may get higher this morning. It’s been gusting to at least 20 MPH for most of the last 48 hours (and counting). So windy would definitely be the theme of the holiday weekend.

It’s also been pretty warm…upper 80s yesterday and likely again today. This will more or less end though today as the combination of rain chances and then more rain and a cooler push of air drastically cuts highs on Wednesday to around 70° or so…and perhaps chillier IF the rain comes in earlier in the day.

The main thing to watch though is the potential of stronger to severe storms, particularly in NW MO and NE KS later today and tonight. Depending on what happens with those storms and if we end up getting a push of rain cooled air and additional storms in the Metro overnight and then the position of any outflow boundaries tomorrow…that will determine the Metros severe weather risks tomorrow.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and remaining windy with gusts to 40+ MPH. Highs in the 85-90° range. Muggy as well but not extreme.

Tonight: There may be strong to severe storms in NW MO and NE KS. Should those storms track SEwards overnight, which is possible, or should and outflow be thrust towards KC we may have rain and storms in the Metro overnight. Rain chance: 60% right now. Lows in the 60s (f we get the rain). There is also a chance that another line of storms may form ahead of the severe line towards the NW of the Metro. Those may be closer to the I-35 corridor as well. So actually there are 2 chances of storms overnight.

Tomorrow: Dependent on clouds and various boundaries that may be near or south of the area. For now lets just say a decent chance of rain and storms. Some storms may be severe with the right set-up but it’s not a slam dunk for the Metro. Highs near 80°

Wednesday: Rain/storms redeveloping. Highs near 70°

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Discussion:

The month of May will go down s a warmer than average month. Temperatures through yesterday are running about 1.6° above average and today and tomorrow won’t hurt that trend. It will also go down as a wetter than average month since we’ve already had 5.5″ of rain up at KCI. The average is around 5.23″. So regardless of whether or not it rains tonight or tomorrow…it’s a wetter and warmer an average month.

Today the biggest concern for severe storms is actually up into Minnesota where a moderate, level 4/5 risk is up from the SPC.

There may be some big tornadoes up there today…really anywhere near that level 4 risk

Farther south…we’ll be watching areas in NW MO and NE KS for this evening and whether or not the cap will weaken enough to allow storms to fire along and ahead of a slow moving cold front that will be working through the Plains today.

This morning the surface map shows the cold front towards the west of the region with a surface low moving into Nebraska. Dew points, which haven’t been too bad this past weekend are in the 60s with 70° dew points down towards SE OK and E TX.

The strong winds of the weekend have been allowing those thicker dew points to ‘mix out” as they come northwards, in other words the drier air above us is mixing out the muggier surface air to some extent. Tonight and tomorrow the moisture should thicken up a bit more and the dew points will have an easier time rising.

The forecast though gets rather complicated tonight and tomorrow. We’re sort of faced with trying to make a forecast from a forecast. What I mean by this is trying to figure out how storms that are most likely to affect areas NW of the Metro…affect what happens tomorrow in the Metro. The chances of stronger storms is certainly higher to the NW of KC overnight. As the central Plains front works towards the NW of KC…storms should fire up.

The issue is how many storms come together…do they persist for a length of time to generate their own cold pool of rain cooled air that helps to push out towards the SE and then affect our region. IF so then we could get some rain or storms locally overnight into tomorrow morning. This is where what happens tonight and tomorrow will affect our bigger storm risk later tomorrow.

IF the storms don’t make it to us from NW MO tonight…or IF some sort of rain-cooled air mass doesn’t push southwards into the region…then the original cold front will be in a favorable area for bigger storms to develop in the Metro tomorrow at some point. This is possible and is what the SPC is targeting.

Winds and hail are the main threats with tomorrow’s storms.

Again though IF we get worked over overnight tonight or IF there is rain in the area tomorrow holding back the instability…then this could be a bigger issue towards the south of the region as opposed to the KC Metro area. Odds do favor at least somewhere in the viewing area to have an issue with severe weather tomorrow…the issue is where? Then again IF whatever outflow boundary is lurking in the region/Metro tomorrow…and additional storms (stronger to severe form) they then could have a boundary to focus a tornadic threat on too. So there are lots of variables for tomorrow’s forecast to finish off the month of May.

Again trying to make a forecast off a forecast complicates things.

Wednesday’s rain doesn’t look to be in the form of severe storms…just rain and perhaps some thunderstorms with the front well south of the area by then. The interesting thing about Wednesday is IF the rain comes in earlier in the day…it may prevent temperatures from warming up much at all. Perhaps only 60s…IF the rain holds off till the afternoon…maybe we could sneak in a 70° high.

The bottom line is it appears another wet week is ahead. The issue with how much rain comes down to whether or not the front is shoved south of the Metro by what happens tonight. IF so, perhaps we’re not as wet…because that could cut the rain totals on Wednesday as well. The GFS has that idea.

GFS rain totals

The flip to that is that whatever front is more towards the Metro tomorrow and we do get some stronger storms and heavier rains…the EURO has that idea.

EURO forecast and you can likely add some to that too since there are thunderstorms involved

So we’ll have to just kind of take this one by ear for tomorrow I think.

One other note, the HRRR model is triggering storms close to the I-35 corridor later this afternoon. I’m not convinced that is correct right now…but I’ll be watching this this afternoon just in case.

The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson

Joe