KANSAS CITY, Mo. — As we finish the first week of May (not March), our weather will start turning around to some extent. Today will be a mostly cloudy day, but there are breaks in the clouds out there already this morning and more are expected as the day moves along. So that’s step one.

We’ll remain below average for highs today (again), but that will turn around tomorrow as highs finally get closer to average, and perhaps a notch or two above average. Finally by Sunday, aided by increasing winds and warmer air coming up from the south and southwest, we’re going to see highs pop into the 80s. That’s step two.

Step three is a push of some borderline extreme air by May standards. Temperatures above us will surge well above average and remain elevated for all of next week. That means, with enough wind and sunshine, it’s going to feel like summer around these parts. Mid-July-like weather coming, and it may sort of shock the system to some extent to go from the unseasonable coolness of late to the heat that’s coming. We’ll be reminding you next week to stay hydrated!

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Kansas City forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and cool. Not a terrible day and we’re done with the rain. Highs in the mid-to-upper 60s depending on the cloud cover situation.

Tonight: Fair with some fog possible and lows down into the upper 40s.

Tomorrow: Sunny (finally) and milder with highs in the lower 70s. Increasing winds later in the day and overnight as well.

Sunday: Windy and warmer with some clouds in the morning. Highs in the mid-80s. There may be some scattered storms towards the Iowa border.

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Discussion:

As I start this blog, there is actually a little sunshine out there as the storm of the last few days is moving farther east of the area.

It’s leaving behind a pretty significant trail of moisture that will need to be worked over by the May sunshine to dry it out. So that will be quite the process today, but it will slowly happen as the day moves along. While the breaks may be few and far between initially, they should start to increase in frequency this evening as skies start clearing out.

As the storm pulls farther away and the moisture moves farther away, we start to see more sunshine over the weekend.

The focus changes to the building heat. The pattern overall will be shifting significantly. A deep trough by May standards (a dip in the jet stream) will move into the western U.S. At the same time, that will force a big ridge to develop in the Mississippi River Valley. This will extend northwards into the Great Lakes, and a deep trough will develop off the east coast. This is referred to as a blocking pattern.

It enables the air under the ridge to warm up significantly, and we can see that by going up a few thousand feet to the 925 mb level. The maps below show the temperatures in degrees Celsius. Remember 20 degrees Celsius equals 68 degrees Fahrenheit, 30 degrees Celsius equals 88 degree Fahrenheit.

So let’s start with tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m. tomorrow will be a seasonable day.

Now Sunday, and look at how things pop from a temperature standpoint.
Check out western Texas where highs are going to soar to 100-plus degress.

Now Monday.

The heat is unleashed through the Plains

And Tuesday:

Temperatures around 28 degrees locally means the temperatures a few thousand feet up are close to 82 degrees. That is REALLY warm by May standards and more typical for mid-summer around these parts.

So the heat will build in, and because the pattern is blocked up, it will remain for awhile.

Farther up, closer to 18,000 feet or so, you can see the two dips with the ridge in the middle of the country. This is for later Monday.

Both features (dips) are more or less cut off from the main jet stream flow. So there is nowhere for them to go.

At some point we may deal with the dip over the western U.S but that is roughly 10 days away… maybe.

Until then, it’s hot and humid. Winds will at times be an issue, but even the winds will be subsiding to some extent after Monday.

It’s going to feel like summer next week for sure. Rain chances look minimal overall. There might be a sneaky chance during the middle of the week, but odds are we’re waiting until later next weekend at the earliest.

Finally some tidbits to finish the week:

That will do it for the week! Have a great weekend.

The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson.

Joe