Joe’s Weather Blog: Slow building heat with a few storms around too (WED-8/4)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s been rather nice out there with comfortable air thanks to dew points in the 50s. Skies have been partly to mostly clear, and aside from the smoke in the region (thankfully a bit more elevated compared to a couple of days ago), it’s been pretty good for early August.

The dry weather has started to take its toll a bit on the grass. Not unusual, but things are browning up rather quickly out there. It seems we go through this every summer at some point, even the wet summers. As a matter of fact here is something eye popping: There have been some areas that have had around 1 inch or so of rain since July 1. Not much right? Well in Death Valley, California, thanks to a record wet July, there has been more rain out there (1.45 inches) than in parts of the metro since July 1!

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s. Light winds.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with scattered showers/storms possible. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with a chance of some storms at any point. Coverage though won’t be too great. Highs in the mid-80s.

Friday: Hotter, breezy and more humid with highs in the lower 90s.

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Discussion:

So about the dry weather, because it’s dry and getting drier for many areas around the region. There are exceptions, especially in northern Missouri where rain has been a bit more plentiful lately.

Here are the 14- and 30-day rain anomalies ending yesterday morning:

14 Day anomalies
30 Day anomalies

The reddish areas are drier than average.

On the Kansas side it’s been about three weeks and counting since there has been some decent rain at the particular stations. Now remember thunderstorms are very localized, so some parts of Kansas may have snuck in some rain.

Regardless, it’s certainly getting a bit drier in the region by the day.

There may be some scattered showers/storms in the region towards daybreak tomorrow. I don’t want to spend much time on this because I’m just not convinced there will be a lot of coverage to the rain.

The next chance after that may be Saturday evening into Sunday. That has a chance of being something a bit more widespread and it would certainly be a welcome addition!

I mentioned that Death Valley stat. Obviously it’s been brutal out there but there has been good rains in the southwest part of the country in areas. Tucson, Arizona just experienced their wettest month on record with over 8 inches of rain in July.

Over the coming couple of weeks the model data at least is showing some rain but remember August typically brings us almost 4 inches of rain. It’s not the wettest month of the year, but on average we should get some decent rains in the area.

EURO rain forecast
GFS rain forecast

Under 2 inches for most of the region except a bit more in northern Missouri.

Meh.

The pattern overall is warm to hot. We’ll see if the rain chances on Sunday play out. That could knock down the temperatures for a day or so, but overall warm to hot.

These numbers above might be a bit overdone next week, but you get the point. One thing to start thinking about is the browning of the terrain. I doubt we can get to 100° at this point, but one of the issues we’ve had this season when maxing out at 98° four times is that we’ve had very high dew points and lots of green terrain in the area. If we start taking away all the greenness over the coming week or so, it could nudge us a bit more. Again, rain on Sunday would keep the terrain greener and null this discussion.

Meanwhile, also alluded to the extra monsoon rains in the west. The problem is that these tend to be rather focused and hit or miss often. I’ve brought up the Lake Oroville situation in the past. Remember that’s the dam that broke about five years ago. Well let’s say that things there have changed.

Here is a look at the reservoir levels out there:

There’s this… not surprising in terms of tornadoes (or the lack thereof):

Look where the min is?

Oh and finally there’s this from a couple of days ago up in the Northwest Territories in Canada:

OK that’s it for today.

The feature photo comes from Terri Bruntmyer a couple of days ago.

Joe

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