KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s not unusual for summer patterns to bring copious rain to some areas while missing others. The idea in the end is for things to try to average out as time goes by, and for areas on the south side of Kansas City, we could use some averaging out.

I was digging through some data yesterday showing the difference on the air about how some areas were doing great for moisture over the last 30 days or so, while others, shall we say, “not so much.”

For example: KCI has had over 4 inches of rain this month. Olathe, Kansas, has had just over 1 inch. Sedalia, Missouri has over 5 inches of rain this month, while a couple of counties away, Pleasant Hill is barely over 1 inch. Like I referred to, some areas can really use a good drink of water.

You can tell for areas on the south side as the blue grass in particular is starting to show some signs of stress. Typical really for the summer months.

You can especially see it near where the grass and the concrete are next to each other. That concrete gets even hotter during the heat of the summer and that doesn’t help the soil conditions retain moisture at all either.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and hot with highs around 90 degrees. A little breeze developing in the afternoon

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Hotter and a pinch more humid as well. Windy with gusts to 25 mph. Highs in the lower 90s.

Friday: Variable clouds and not as hot. Rain chances should hold off till the evening, perhaps earlier closer to the Iowa border. Highs closer to 90 degrees.

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Discussion:

So let’s start off with how I opened the blog: the rain situation. Again as is somewhat typical, feast or famine.

Areas on the northside of the Metro, roughly Interstate 70 northwards are in pretty good shape right now. Southside… less so. Take a look at the rain deficits over the past 30 days:

Areas in yellow to orange to red are the deficit areas. Areas in green to blue to purple are the wetter areas with regards to average.

I do see that I-70 is an approximate dividing line:

  • KCI has had 4.73 inches of rain.
  • Olathe has had 1.19 inches
  • Chillicothe has had 5.71 inches
  • Pleasant Hill has had 1.12 inches

St. Joseph is sort of straddling the situation but even they’re below average as well with 2.4 inches so far this month.

These numbers likely won’t change for June with no rain expected tomorrow. Then we start off a new month on Friday.

So that’s why some areas could really use a nice shot of rain. This isn’t unusual for the summer months.

The pattern will favor more of this. There is a front that is going to work it’s way southwards on Friday. The wind shift appears to come through during the morning hours, which isn’t helpful in creating a bunch of storms really locally, and by Friday evening the front may be down into southern Missouri where it will stall.

With that playout, there may not be a ton of instability around here on Friday, and that could reduce our storm chances heading into the afternoon and evening, at least according to the EURO. But is it right? I’m not so sure.

With that said though, the front may not be that far south. It might be closer to the metro in the later afternoon. If that’s the case, then there will be quite a bit more instability to tap into. The overnight run of the NAM model especially is chock full of unstable air with late afternoon storms developing, potentially some stronger ones too with gusty winds as the main threat.

The GFS sort of splits the middle with a ton of instability on the south side of the metro and that’s where the heavier rains would end up being.

As I’ve been telling you this week the location of this front will be critical to what happens, not only on Friday but also through at least part of the holiday weekend. If the front is all the way down towards I-44, then perhaps not much happens Friday with maybe some overnight storms into Saturday morning. If the front is closer then the rain chances are much higher later Friday and the front may dangle nearby into the middle of the holiday weekend.

It’s tough to forecast this because a 2-3 county north or south shift in the front will determine how things play out. Also of note is if there are large areas of rain. This too can force the front farther south as well. So there’s that aspect to things as well.

The flow pattern aloft though also shows a nice little disturbance or two moving through the region on Saturday morning. So that could also help to trigger areas of rain and the EURO has some other little ripples on Sunday morning as well.

So the rain chances are there. They’ve been well advertised for days and they hopefully won’t surprise anyone. The timing is still murky but as I’ve been stressing, it won’t rain all day on Saturday or Sunday. There will be numerous dry periods, and perhaps the clouds could knock down the temperatures a bit as well.

Despite the heat and humidity next week that is likely to be an issue, the overall pattern doesn’t appear totally dry next week either. Trapped moisture with various waves rippling through the Plains could spell additional storms and rain. The EURO and the GFS have these ideas for rain from Monday into Friday next week.

EURO slide right…GFS slide left

We’ll see how that all plays out.

Matt has the feature photo of the day from Shawnee, Kansas.

Joe