KANSAS CITY, Mo. — This will be the last blog for about 10 days or so. I’ll be taking some time off to go check on my mom out in Arizona. Yes Arizona in the summer… it’s a dry heat. They’re outdoing themselves though right now with highs yesterday of 109 degrees and 110-plus degrees likely for the next few days. When an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Arizona… that’s hot!

For us, the storms last night were really no big deal as expected locally. There were some stronger storms west of the metro, but really for us just some rain, and not even that much of that it appears. There are still a few showers/storms possible today but for the most part things will be getting hotter and hotter for the next few days. It’s a damp heat here, dry heat out there.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with a few showers/storms still possible, but most remain dry. Seasonable with highs near 80, perhaps lower 80s in spots.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the lower 60s.

Tomorrow: Warmer with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday: Hotter with highs in the lower 90s.

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Discussion:

Let’s start with radar…

Rain amounts overnight were nothing really to write home about. KCI had less than a 1/10 inch or so, and for some that might be the last rain through the middle of next week.

The real story will become the building heat that’s heading towards the region. This is part of the heat dome that has been affecting the southern U.S. into the southwest part of the country. That heat will be building northwards over the weekend into next week. It may get tamped down a bit sometime later Wednesday and next Thursday, then it returns I believe after that.

It’s going to be a hot stretch, and with all the greenery out there and the moisture in the soil turning into higher dew points, the heat index will be near 100 degrees, if not above in some area.

There will be a lot of wind though, especially Monday through Wednesday.

So let’s go through the heat. Tomorrow (boxes represent near to record warmth):

Sunday:

Monday:

So a pretty strong surge of heat.

The transition of the air mass tomorrow into tomorrow night may create some thunderstorms somewhere, perhaps up towards the Iowa border and northern Missouri, something to be watching.

Some model data indicates that something may be a bit closer to Kansas City tomorrow evening as well. We won’t exactly be capped too strongly, so it’s something to sort of pay attention too. If there would be a storm with building heat and higher dew points, I couldn’t rule out the potential of some severe weather either. The NAM model this morning actually has a disturbance coming down from southeast Nebraska. That could be an impetus to something as well.

From there though, the heat goes into overdrive.

There may be a front edging into the area sometime later Wednesday. That could be a trigger for storms if we can break the building cap that should be in place.

Even after that though, there should be rebuilding heat. It will be interesting (to me) to see if we can get some storminess with the rebuilding heat.

Also interestingly, this is an early pattern set up for some significant moisture to move into the deserts out west with the potential of storms and rain to develop next weekend.

I may see more rain in the desert than you see here in Kansas City next week, which would be unusual for June.

Figures.

That’s it. See you on the blog again on the 22nd.

The feature photo is from Timothy Burkett out towards Leavenworth, Kansas.

Joe