Joe’s Weather Blog: Steamy with a distant front ahead (WED-8/25)

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It was an interesting overnight for the area…of course the weather didn’t really change last night but there were storms across northern MO that has thrown some sort of boundary south of the storms and into the Metro. At 7AM the winds on the north side were gusting from the east…a change from the persistent southerly flow.

This boundary should weaken and fall apart today…but it may help (we’ll see) to knock a few degrees off the temperatures and while there are no indications of new storms firing this afternoon…it’s something to watch for in case that boundary can become a new focus as we get more unstable again in the afternoon.

Aside from that though the better cold front is due sometime on Sunday. The timing is still a question with that as are the rain chances. That should help to lower the heat a bit by the end of the weekend.

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Forecast:

Today: A few clouds around this morning but overall mostly sunny. Not as windy as yesterday though with highs still in the low to mid 90s

Tonight: Generally clear with lows in the mid to upper 70s

Tomorrow: About the same. Mid 90s

Friday: No real changes. Mid 90s

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Discussion:

We continue to plod through the heat. Yesterday was the 13th day this year with highs at least 95° or higher. Last year we had NONE!

On average though thee are 17 days with highs 95+ each year in data going back to 1900. So this is pretty much par for the course really for this area. There are a few ore coming over the coming next 5-10 days it appears.

Yesterday on the news I spent some time talking about the temperatures this summer. For KC it’s really a NOTE noteworthy summer season (since June 1st). It’s the 41st warmest in KC weather history. What was noteworthy though was how hot it’s been across the northern half of the United States. There are dozens of stations out there in the Top 10 hottest. Take a look at the numbers below. See all the ones, especially out west…that represents the hottest on record! There are a few stations in the southeast that are having one of their coolest summers.

Caveat about the data…there are some stations in that map that have period of records (POR) with only about 20-30 years of data. That isn’t a great data point(s) to the map below and contributes to the coolest/warmest stations being close to each other For example in KC KCI is having their 9th hottest summer BUT when you factor in the years BEFORE KCI was in the data…it’s the 41st warmest (this takes into account the downtown weather data before all of it was transferred to the KCI official data point for KC). Make sense?

So anyway that heat…and all the dryness work together in bad ways. drought and fires are the two bad ways obviously. Here is the latest and a few years of of stats showing the burns through Monday.

The main newsy fire right now is the Caldor fire. Remember about 10 days ago I told you this fire was going to be a big deal. Well it’s starting to get more attention because it’s creeping towards the Lake Tahoe area.

As of last night it’s burned 123,000 acres with over 2200 personal fighting it. More firefighters are working this fire because of the increasing threat it poses to structures and communities. They’re trying like heck to get ahead of the fire. It’s about 9% contained.

The fire is spreading and advancing towards the ENE…

You can see the proximity of South Lake Tahoe above…that is steep terrain and tried out land ahead of the fire…and that’s problematic.

Meanwhile as I’ve shown you in the past week or so the monsoonal pattern this season has been very beneficial to AZ and NM, amongst others. There is a way to show how much greener things are in AZ compared to last years almost non-monsoon in AZ at least. This is a pretty dramatic comparison really. Move the slider to the right for this year…and left for last year.

This year >>>>>> Last ear <<<<<<<

Both these states have seen improved drought conditions. This moisture has worked down into the roots of the brush that’s growing allowing things to green up…here is a nationwide perspective on that and you can see the wet areas and the dry areas as well.

The northeast as well as the deep south are really saturated whereas many areas out west and across the Rockies and the upper Midwest aren’t doing so well.

Meanwhile the tropics are active as is typical for late August…and there are new concerns developing with a potential disturbance down in western Caribbean.

That red area off of South America may become a problem and a potential tropical storm/hurricane coming into the Gulf Of Mexico…and it could threaten the TX/LA area at some point early next week.

Confidence in the chances of at least a tropical depression forming are high…model land is concerning because some models really pop this thing off as it heads towards NE TX or LA. The GFS has a major hurricane hitting southern LA where as the EURO has a strong tropical storm hitting LA.

Needless to say something to watch into the weekend.

For us the main thing to watch is a cold front due in on Sunday at some point. There should be rain at some point on Sunday but the timing is still a question. It’s 5 days away so I won’t get too involved in that breakdown right now…more on that tomorrow and Friday. By the way IF whatever gets going down in the Gulf gets farther west into TX…then we’ll need to watch that for a northwards expansion of the rain chances.

Also of note…whatever relief we get from the cold front Sunday into Tuesday will likely be short-lived…hot weather returns after that (depending on the future movements of whatever tropical activity there is down south).

Mark Vaughn in the Table Rock area sends in this feature photo

Joe

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