Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm #2 moves away…now what with storm #3 (WED-10/13)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — For an area that struggled to get any moisture for much of September and early October… well, boom goes the dynamite.

Another soaking rain moved through as expected this morning. Between last night’s activity and this mornings, amounts were in the 1/3 to 1 1/4-inch range for many areas.

We should see rapid improvement later this morning, and more sunshine this afternoon. There is a small chance of a few more showers towards lunch or so in parts of the area, but the coverage won’t be so great on that second batch.

Then we wait on system No. 3 which may not be as widespread as what we’ve seen for Nos. 1 and 2.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with more PM sunshine and drier conditions. Highs in the mid-70s and breezy.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool with lows near 50°.

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds with some scattered showers/storms possible later in the day or evening. Highs in the upper 60s.

Friday: The better chances of rain may be south of the Metro with variable clouds in the area. Highs will be cooler though, perhaps only around 60 or so later in the afternoon. Breezy as well.

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Discussion:

So let’s start with the rain situation over the past 24 hours:

And over the past 72 hours:

I did alternate the scale on those two graphics but you sort of get the idea. Some pretty widespread 2 to 4-inch totals in the Metro.

Definitely needed for sure, considering that from Sept. 5 onwards we only had 1/2 inch or so until a few days ago.

This is a pretty impressive storm: big snows and big rains, and last night, big tornadoes in the western Plains down into southwest Oklahoma.

There were mostly nighttime tornadoes down in Kansas and Oklahoma.

As a matter of fact, in the Wichita area, they actually had a tornado watch. Not crazy unusual in the fall, but really unusual considering they shockingly haven’t had one there since June of 2019!

Nighttime tornadoes aren’t fun to deal with. Look at this car’s headlights in the distance and the proximity to a tornado crossing the road:

On the other side of the coin, some really chilly air (not unusual) into the northwest part of the country especially.

There are still blizzard warnings this morning in that region too (via Pivotal Weather):

The flood watches in the Texas Hill County going up into southeast Oklahoma are connected with the soon to be remnants of Pamela that came ashore in Mexico this morning.

So as far as the next system goes, still a bit murky…

There should be another increase in moisture tomorrow night into Friday morning with the chance of rain/storms developing. The bulk of the activity appears to be from the Metro southwards. Moving in tomorrow evening and lingering early Friday but we should see some nice clearing after that. Temperatures will be on the coolish side though setting up a nice weekend in the region with chilly mornings (maybe some frost in northern Missouri in a few areas at least too).

Rain totals don’t look too high though. The morning run of the hi-res NAM shows this idea.

The GFS is sort of along the same lines:

Again though the weekend looks great!

The feature photo is from Sheila Jackson.

Joe

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