Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms arrive this afternoon then more heat (FRI-6/11)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s Friday and another warm and humid start to the day. Dew points are going to creep into the 70s today and with highs near to above 90° during the early afternoon, there is going to be a ton of instability out there.

As I start this blog, there is a line of storms up across eastern Nebraska approaching Omaha and Lincoln. Those will eventually turn towards the southeast and move into northwest Missouri early this afternoon and into the Kansas City area sometime after 2 p.m. it appears. Those storms will likely have some heavy rains and strong winds and perhaps some severe weather as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny into the early afternoon with storms moving into the Kansas City metro area sometime in the 2-5 p.m. time frame. They won’t last all that long but locally heavy rain and some strong winds are the main issues with these storms, as well as some smaller hail. Highs today in the lower 90s. Areas farther east of Kansas City may not see a lot from this.

Tonight: Clearing out and mild with lows in the upper 60s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and hot with highs near 90°.

Sunday: About the same with some lower humidity levels.

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Discussion:

At this point I sort of feel like a broken record with what I’ve been writing and talking about for the last couple of days. Storms are out there and they will, in time, drop towards the Missouri River and move south-southeast towards the Kansas City area.

Here is radar for the morning blog readers of what’s happening to our north this morning:

The whole area will start turning southeast in the next few hours and head towards Kansas City.

Storm arrival is still towards mid-afternoon in the metro with earlier arrival times and later this morning into northwest Missouri. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued up there too.

The region, especially from the metro westwards is under a slight-to-enhanced risk of severe weather.

Winds are the main threats:

There may be some hail with this as well in some areas.

The instability will be pretty darn high as the storms come into the area.

CAPE values which shows the highest amount of available convective potential energy are pretty strong early this afternoon.

So the storms will be coming into a very rich environment and we’ll see how they well they grow upscale in about the peak heating of the day.

The latest HRRR short-range model run this morning shows this concept of the storms arrival:

For timing: 18Z is 1 p.m., 21Z is 4 p.m., 0Z is 7 p.m.

Most of the heavy stuff should be cleared from the metro by about 7 p.m. or so based on the current trends.

Sometimes with these southeastward moving clusters though, there may be a one-to-two hour speedup compared to model-driven forecasts. So it’s worth being “on guard” from about 2 p.m. onwards in the metro at least and earlier in northwest Missouri.

I expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for the Kansas City area this afternoon.

You can get microbursts from this situation as well: localized areas of damage from potentially even stronger winds.

As I’ve said on the air, we need the rain and this sort of really is crucial rain for us. If you miss out on things today (and some well may, especially farther east at least in terms of beneficial rains), I don’t have an identifiable chance coming at this point for next week. There may be better opportunities coming the week of June 21 though.

The flow pattern next week will be dominated by as a massive ridge/dome of high pressure/heights aloft stretching from the desert southwest to the northern Rockies.

Next Tuesday evening may at 18,000 feet

Here is a rough importance of the map above via the University of Arizona.

“The 500 mb height actually tells you about the average air temperature in the vertical column of air between the ground surface and 4.6 – 6.0 km (2.9 – 3.8 miles) above sea level. Often this provides a good estimate of how warm or cold the air temperature is near the ground where we live.”

I bring them up because look what happens towards Phoenix next week. That’s ugly heat that may challenge daily records.

A somewhat similar situation set up in August last year. That was the time we maxed out for summer highs with temperatures at 94°. Yesterday we hit 93°. Last summer we hit 94° three times I think, all in August.

The forecast locally is essentially 90-95° days into most of next week. Well-timed clouds could alter a day or two.

We will be slightly vulnerable to morning storm complexes, especially more towards northeast and north central Missouri. I just don’t have any confidence on a better risk of rain next week for any one particular day.

Enjoy the weekend! The feature photo comes from Kellie Lewis Doyle down towards the Lake Of The Ozarks, Missouri.

Joe

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