Joe’s Weather Blog: Stormy Sunday and now a very wet Wednesday/Thursday (MON-10/25)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A fascinating day yesterday watching the unfolding storms develop and quickly move away. For the metro as a whole, aside from some rumbles and perhaps a brief downpour, it wasn’t too big of a deal. For areas north of Kansas City towards the 36 highway corridor, several tornadoes were spotted. Nothing overly large, but strong enough to do some damage to a few things.

The only tornado east of Kansas City was a brief touchdown east of Sedalia. Unfortunately the nighttime tornadoes were more prolific towards southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where they were larger and more destructive.

For us, more soaking rains are on the way on Wednesday with a slow-developing storm in the region. Rain will likely linger into Thursday too. Over 1 inch is possible with this.

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Forecast:

Today: Gradual clearing sometime later this afternoon and cooler. Highs in the mid-50s.

Tonight: Fair and chilly with lows in the upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and milder with highs in the low to mid-60s.

Wednesday: Rain developing with highs near 60.

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Discussion:

Let’s recap yesterday because the key to the tornadoes in northern Missouri was the surface low that was moving eastwards. This marked a “triple point,” a mixture of low pressure with a connected warm front and cold front. The storms that formed started rotating and it didn’t take long to get funnels and tornadoes starting near the Missouri River. Storms storms moved east and east-northeast and continued to off-and-on produce as they did so. There weren’t any strong wind reports or hail reports to my knowledge.

I received numerous videos and here is one of them from one of the tornadoes. There were several including a lot of intermittent funnels and tornadoes.

While not rare, we don’t get a lot of October tornadoes around these parts.

More on the newscast tonight.

The worst of the tornadoes were in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois south of St Louis. Lots of bad radar signatures were noticed with a lot of debris being lofted into the atmosphere. I haven’t heard of any injuries or deaths though, so that is good news.

This morning, we’re starting the day with lots of clouds in the region. These clouds will hang around for awhile I think and only gradually move out this afternoon from the north to the south.

Yesterday was also fascinating because of this:

This storm was the strongest (pressure wise) in our recorded weather history in that part of the Pacific Ocean.

The “river” of moisture associated with it was impressive to say the least and brought some good news: the end of the wildfire season across northern California. The bad news is that the previous fires were prime set-ups for flooding and mud/landslides.

The Dixie Fire started back on July 13. Thanks to all the rain, it was finally “contained” yesterday after burning through almost 1 million acres.

A piece of that storm is going to break off and move through the Rockies and the southern Plains over the next four days or so. You can see that happening when looking up at the 500 mb level or around 18,000 feet.

If this was a winter setup, it would likely be a big winter storm for us, with a rain-to-snow switch. Obviously there isn’t any cold air to allow that to happen locally, so we’re just be getting a bunch of rain from this it appears.

Farther west into the Plains and southern Plains, severe weather is possible:

I’ve said it a million times, unusual storms can do unusual things, and this type of storm off the Pacific Coast is one for the record books.

All that rain will be moving towards the east and once it moves in, because the storm aloft is going to strengthen, things will slow down to a crawl and the rain will “get stuck” along the State Line.

Here is a close up view of the storm coming through the middle of the country.

For timing…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM…0Z is 7PM and 6Z is 1AM

Most modeling suggests 1-3 inches of rain is likely with this across much of the area and there may be quite a bit of steady wind with this. So Wednesday and Thursday don’t look so great.

We can’t complain too much though, we’re running more than 4° above average for the month and have only had four days with temperatures below average this month as well.

Ben has this feature photo of the day. @RunningNinja23

Joe

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