Joe’s Weather Blog: Stronger storms likely for some later today (SUN-6/20)

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It’s the first day of summer, which officially begins at 10:32 PM tonight. As it comes in though a cold front will be breaking the back of the heat we’ve seen over the last 4-5 days or so. While the storms this morning provided some temporary relief and needed rains for many…it’s about to get very steamy out there as the sun will be returning.

That steam heat and a cold front coming should work in tandem to create some decent+ storms later today…towards evening. These storms could be severe in a few areas…with hail/winds being the main threats.

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Forecast:

Today: Turning sunny and muggier. Highs 90-95° with juicy air making it feel closer to 100°

Tonight: Stronger storms possible after 7PM or so. Spreading from the NW to the SE. Some hail and stronger winds are possible with the storms as well as locally heavy rains. Lows dropping into the 60s for the start of Monday

Monday: Rain in the morning then gradual clearing. Cooler with highs in the 70s

Tuesday: Nice…lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s

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Short Sunday blog for you…with active weather expected this evening again.

A few things though…

  1. it will get hotter again starting Wednesday and Thursday for a few days.
  2. Another decent push of cool air is likely sometime later Thursday with the risk of stronger storms at some point…perhaps towards Thursday night.
  3. The cooler air will come into the area after that providing some relief I think for next weekend.

Now onto the situation for today.

There is a cold front in the Plains that will be coming towards us later today and this evening.

The morning storms are moving away.

and sunshine is moving into the region.

This will allow instability to rebuild as the day moves along.

By later today CAPE values…indicating the potential energy in the atmosphere for stronger storms is pretty high. The combination of heat and humidity along with a few other things help to generate these strong values.

CAPE values over 2000 are higher values and shows the atmosphere ready to go given a reason to pop…and that cold front should be the trick to this.

6PM Surface map

The front will be entering the Metro towards 6-8PM and moving through. It should be enough to pop storms ahead and along it.

Then cooler air will flow in later tonight and it should be more reasonable tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon this is looing possible

There may still be some lingering showers/lighter rains around in the morning tomorrow but we should be in better shape by lunch with a nice afternoon expected.

Tuesday looks wonderful at this point.

We heat up for a few days after that though…

Our feature photo comes from Patrick Redding

Joe

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