Joe’s Weather Blog: Summer continues for awhile (THU-8/19)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — There are about 124 days to go until the first day of winter in Kansas City. Yesterday, there were areas of frost in parts of Fairbanks, Alaska. There may be a few flakes of snow in the next couple of days above the tree line in the Colorado Rockies, so the seasons are showing signs of transitioning.

Here in the Plains though there aren’t any big changes coming to an overall warm-to-hot pattern lingering through the middle of next week.

It’s not an overly dry scenario. There will be several chances of rain/storms. It’s not big-time hot, but there will be a couple of days next week where it will feel all of the middle part of summer. But you can sort of see a more active pattern shaping up across Canada: more frequent cold fronts up there as a precursor to changes down the road in the Plains.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds this morning then partly cloudy this afternoon with scattered showers/storms possible later this afternoon. Highs 85-90°.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a few showers/storms possible before daybreak. Muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and muggy. Highs near 90 with heat indices more towards 100°. Storm risks increase towards the mid-to-late evening. Some of those storms could be severe in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas and strong as they approach Kansas City.

The weekend: Nicer on Saturday with lower humidity, then on Sunday there may be some showers/storms around at some point during the day. I’m not confident about the location though of that activity. So tonight, I’ll be bring the rain chance up to about 30% or so. Highs Saturday in the mid-to-upper 80s, and the same for Sunday with more humidity.

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Discussion:

Well in a nutshell, there is plenty more pool weather coming… for the pools that remain open that is. Lots of early closures for a variety of reasons, but perhaps there are open ones still around over the weekends. This weekend should be a pretty good pool weekend, especially Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

There are several opportunities for rain showing up. There were some very small showers the briefly bubbled up yesterday in parts of the metro, but the activity was very isolated(!) as expected. Today, there should be a bit more of that. Not widespread, but perhaps a bit more compared to yesterday. Even this morning, there are some showers on the Kansas side moving northeast. Nothing too significant though.

One interesting part about this morning is that there are lower clouds that have moved into the area. Not for all, but for a lot of areas, especially south of Interstate 70.

You can see the lumpier nature of the clouds on the Kansas side out towards Topeka. Those are smaller areas of lift that are creating some showers.

Later today as we heat up to the mid-to-upper 80s or so, we should again find ourselves with instability building. There may be some weak lift moving through the area from the south at around 10,000 feet or so that could be enough to trigger a few more showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon. Hence the rain chance for today.

So that’s chance No. 1. Not a ton of coverage though expected right now.

Another chance occurs just before daybreak as the low level jet above the surface really ramps up overnight. It’s not the greatest setup but there could be a bit of a focus in eastern Kansas and whatever happens there would move towards the east-northeast and through at least parts of the area. Still not expecting a ton of coverage with this either.

Tomorrow is a pretty typical hot and humid day in the area.

Next chance: Tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning. This is associated with a “cold” front that really is more like a “drier air” front than anything. This should trigger storms, perhaps even a moderate squall line across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas extending southwards, moving towards Kansas City after sunset Friday. So this would be our best chance of something a bit more widespread for the area. With these storms, some stronger winds are possible, especially across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. We’ll see what sort of shape they’re in by the time they get to us.

On Saturday, there should be a nice break from the higher dew points, but still a seasonably warm day.

Then Sunday brings yet another chance, but in some ways what happens Friday night and how far south the push of dry air gets will influence Sunday’s setup as a hotter and more humid air mass starts pushing back northwards. These higher surface dew points will really be felt later Sunday. As we transition from dew points in the low-to-mid-60s to dew points in the low-to-mid-70s. There could be storms.

Then it gets hotter and even more tropical early next week.

Compared to average, it will be very toasty I think. The heat indices may again surge to 105° or higher on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures compared to average at 7PM Monday

Then on Tuesday, no change really.

Temperatures compared to average at 7PM Tuesday

That will be a nasty hot/humid summer day(s).

There should be relief towards the middle of next week though thanks to a cold front moving closer to the area and higher rain chances coming back into the area (maybe some heavier rains too).

You can see how the EURO shows the less hot trends towards the end of next week.

Yesterday, Grace became a hurricane as expected.

Henri continues in the western Atlantic, and it may well be a threat towards New England. There is becoming no doubt though that even if Henri stays off the coast, rain, winds and coastal erosion will be issues there later in the weekend and early next week.

You can still see both storms.

Finally, Arizona rain. Man, they’ve had themselves quite a bit of rain out there, so much so that while drought conditions continue for many areas. It’s actually gotten a bit better recently. Yesterday, the flooding rain and even some hail was mostly on the north and east side of the Phoenix area.

Look at how there have been improvements in the drought classifications since before monsoon season started to after. The map on the left is the latest while the map on the right is around July 4.

California on the other hand… not as lucky.

You can just see how those fires spread so quickly. Watch this below.

I’ll try and get an updated blog out tomorrow morning but I have the day off, so no promises.

The feature photo comes from Captain Kman via Twitter @marine1146.

Joe

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