Joe’s Weather Blog: Summer heat and at least some summer rain (FRI-8/6)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — So the rain yesterday wasn’t that big of a deal in the Kansas City area, although late last night, there were some nice storms rumbling through parts of northern and central Missouri towards the east of the area. The lack of anything significant was not surprising around the KC area.

Now we move on to hotter days with occasional storm chances. Dew points will be nudging upwards, and if we get some rain over the weekend, perhaps lurching higher than that. That means the heat index will be a “thing” again, nudging close to 105°.

The rain though will be in the forecast for more than a couple of days. The best chance of something “organized” locally would be early on Sunday. After that we’re looking at more or less scattered activity. One of those forecasts where you could put in rain chances every day really: 20% here, 30% there… you get the drift, typical summer.

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Forecast:

Today: Smoky sunshine with morning clouds with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values between 95-100°.

Tonight: Fair and milder with lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow: More of the same with highs in the 90-95° range. There may be some later PM storms in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Odds favor that activity staying towards the northwest of the metro for the Garth Brooks concert. This will need to be watched though.

Sunday: Early AM storms with scattered storms possible later in the day as well. Highs in the lower 90s.

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Discussion:

Not a long blog today… it’s Friday!

Overall, no major changes are needed to the forecast I don’t think. Progressively warmer to hotter with creeping dew points. It won’t be jarring, and it won’t be as sultry as what happened last week when dew points were into the high 70s.

Dew points this morning in the region (the numbers in green on the map below) are mostly in the 60s. There really aren’t too many 70s showing up.

Once you get down to central Texas though there are dew points in the mid-70s. We should see some 70-plus dew points around over the weekend. My thought is that these may get a bit higher into Monday, especially if we get some rain in the region on Sunday morning especially. That will turn into steam heat early next week.

Guidance for tomorrow evening does show a complex of storms developing and strengthening across northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. This is at 10 p.m.:

The main thrust of this may be more towards the northwest of the metro by then. We’ll need to watch for some stronger storms up there and locally heavy rains as well. There is a “marginal” risk of severe storms up there.

Then during the wee hours of Sunday morning:

7 a.m. Sunday

Data shows things splitting up. I don’t have a lot of confidence in this scenario however. Outflow from the evening convection northwest of Kansas City could influence storms locally into Sunday morning. There will be a nice low-level jet stream developing as well overnight Saturday. That could aid in the gradual working south of the convection to the northwest of the metro. It’s not the greatest setup but at least there is a chance of “something” around here and we could really use it. It’s really drying out locally in many areas, especially in Johnson County, where the rains have mostly missed that one county. Others though are in the same boat with Johnson County.

We’re actually on the southern end of a “dip” in the flow above us in the mid-levels. There is a nice disturbance up there and while perhaps the better organization will be north of here, that is a decent little trough coming into the area Sunday morning.

So perhaps we can get some over achievers later Saturday night and early Sunday.

Then whatever rain we get on Sunday, especially in the AM turns into more steam heat early next week. I can’t say with certainty that it won’t rain early next week. We have weak flow for a few days aloft and pretty warm atmosphere. We’re not overly capped and it would be a case where one storm could create some others on outflow alone. Like I mentioned, 20% chances really for most of the week, perhaps a bit higher towards the end of the week.

The EURO does has a significant front towards the end of next week, knocking us back to the 80s. We’ll see about that.

OK that’s it for the day and likely the weekend. Finally, in case you missed these two nuggets, there’s this:

And this:

The feature photo comes from Connie Frizzell out in Warrensburg, Missouri.

Joe

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