KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Another scorcher out there today as highs will challenge the record of 93 degrees set back in 1962. Yesterday we tied a record high of 92 degrees and we set a record warm low temperature as well at 74 degrees.
So far this week, two record-tying highs and two record warm lows. So far this morning, the low has been 73 degrees, this will not be a record warm low day.
The heat is going to likely break tomorrow. A weak cold front will move through and at least some fading rains may move through as well during the morning. The question is do we see new storms re-fire in the afternoon/evening tomorrow. That is still questionable, but the potential is there.
Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Sunny and hot. Windy as well with numerous gusts over 25 mph. Highs in the lower 90s.
Tonight: Dry for most of the night, but there may be some showers/storms coming through before daybreak. Lows may drop into the upper 60s with the showers.
Tomorrow: The risk of some rain continues, but not all day. Not as hot with some sunshine through the clouds, highs 80-85 degrees.
This weekend: Good on Saturday, mid-80s with lower humidity, then a risk of showers/storms on Sunday morning, highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees.
Our unusually hot weather continues, and if you’re wondering how unusual this is for May, well getting multiple days of 90-plus degrees is not common. We average one for the month of May.
Today will be the fourth day with highs 90 or above. The last time we had this many in late May was 2018. The earliest for having four straight days of 90-plus degrees is April of 1989. We’ve had streaks of at least four days of 90-plus degrees in May in 1962 and 1967 as well. So this would be the fourth streak of 90-plus degrees in May.
Another way of looking at this is to see the total number of 90-plus degree days by day for the month of May.
This is unusual heat, and if it was the middle of summer with an even higher sun angle, it would be even hotter… closer to 100 degrees or so.
When will the heat end?
This will be coming to an end over the coming 24 hours, as a weak front moves towards the region. This front will help to fire off areas of rain and storms towards central Kansas tonight and those will lumber towards the region overnight, likely weakening some as they approach.
Some rain is possible tomorrow morning though. The issue after that is do we get unstable enough and are there focusing mechanisms around to focus that instability for us to see renewed development of rain/storms later in the day. Some data out this morning isn’t too bullish on this idea.
The weakening front shoves just far enough south that the convergence in the lower part of the atmosphere is too far south of Kansas City. That means there would be a lessor chance of renewed convection in the PM hours tomorrow locally, perhaps a better chance towards the Lakes region.
I’m still though leery about these solutions and want to wait before I take out the rain later tomorrow.
My concern is that perhaps some of the data is overzealous about the frontal push south, and that with a fading areas of rain in the early part of the day, the front may not get a big enough push to clear the area. That means it’s lurking closer to the metro.
That also could lead to us getting a bit warmer, perhaps low-to-mid-80s in the afternoon. That could be enough to trigger new storms to develop, especially if there is a boundary lurking in the region before the new afternoon/evening convection is strong enough to push the boundary to the south of here.
The front should be far enough south taking the focus with it to allow Saturday to be nice.
There will be another chance on Sunday morning. But it isn’t set in stone right now. A series of small, seemingly unorganized disturbances is coming down from the western Plains. It’s possible they trigger some scattered showers/storms in the morning, but there isn’t a lot of jet energy to help to maintain this stuff as it approaches the metro, and the focus may be better to the west and southwest of the metro. So the chance is there of something happening, but right now that’s all it is… a chance.
Overall, we’re going to remain in a warmish pattern, even next week it appears. I won’t be shocked if there is a day next week where we can pop the temperatures ahead of a stronger cold front.
Odds are favoring some better rain chances setting up for the back half of May. That would be typical of May and this being the wettest time of the year.
OK that’s it for today. I may try and get an afternoon blog out tomorrow.
The feature photo is from Kevin Cade, a smoky sunset the other night.