Joe’s Weather Blog: The heat settles in…and questionable rain chances this weekend (WED-6/16)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’re now more than half way done with the month, and unless something big happens for the backside of the month, this one will go down as warmer than average. Today will be the seventh day this month with highs in the 90s, and more are coming. It’s conceivable that we stay in the 90s through Sunday.

Last year, we had 14 days with highs in the 90s in June. We average around seven or so in June. We’re also running 4 degrees above average so far this month with more to add to that over the next five days it appears.

There were actually a couple of showers overnight. KCI had a few hundredths of an inch. We’re sort of going to have that risk again today, but most will stay hot and dry. The dew points aren’t as bad as they can be, so the air will feel about the same as yesterday.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with clouds around at times. Highs in the lower-to-mid-90s.

Tonight: Fair skies, maybe an isolated shower. Lows in the mid-70s.

Tomorrow: Likely hotter with highs 95-100°. The record is 100°.

Friday: The same, record is 104°.

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Discussion:

You’re going to need a bigger pool. That was the title of one of my graphics from yesterday. Hot and slowly increasingly more humid weather is on the way to the region. The winds tomorrow will be kicking up as well with gusts near 25 mph. Maybe that will provide the hair dryer effect because that will just be a hot wind blowing.

The rain chances are fleeting and very low into Friday. There will be a weak front that may approach Kansas City, or perhaps an outflow from storms in northern Missouri sometime later Friday night or Saturday. But data over the past 24 hours is showing a lessening coverage of storms around Kansas City.

It’s something to watch for though, mainly for Saturday morning, but there will be a cap to overcome and I’m not overly thrilled with the chances of rain at this point. Remember some areas haven’t had much rain at all this month.

This is data through yesterday showing approximate rainfall deficits in the region in the last couple of weeks. There were some healthy downpours on Friday, but some areas totally missed out south of downtown.

Northern Missouri is also starting to dry out as well and if we expand the scope to the last 30 days.

Iowa is having some issues too.

As a matter of fact, many areas are starting to run surface moisture deficits. Obviously the western U.S. is in terrible shape and the upper Midwest is in rough shape as well.

The drought out west worsens by the day. This is typically a very dry time of the year anyways, but combined with record highs (and in some case all-time highs), it’s not a good scenario out there for sure. Salt Lake City, as well as a few other places, set all-time highs yesterday. Palm Springs, California hit 120°.

Today, record or near-record heat is possible across parts of the west and even into the central Plains.

Here is a broader view of today and tomorrow:

Today’s highs with square outlines indicating potential records

Again some of the heat “flops” over in the Plains tomorrow. Our record is 100°.

We’ve hit 100° in the month of June 66 times going back to the 1880s. It’s been awhile though: Nine years since our last 100° in June. Back in 2012, we actually had four straight days with highs between 100-105° as we were in the midst of a drought that persisted until the Labor Day weekend if I remember correctly.

We were in increasing drought conditions locally that would get a lot worse as the summer wore on. Here is the drought report from about this time back in 2012:

The new report comes out tomorrow, but you can see the differences (so far):

A lack of drought conditions in the Plains, and terrible conditions out west.

We’ll dive deeper into the rain situation tomorrow, but there will be cooler air returning to the area on Monday next week it appears and it should last a couple of days. Overall though, it’s a pretty warm pattern later next week as well.

The feature photo comes from Nancy Calltharp.

Joe

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