Joe’s Weather Blog: The heat will break soon (THU-7/29)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Well we’re going to make a run towards 100° today. We hit 98° yesterday. Today we’ll be somewhere between 99 and 101° I think. A reminder that we haven’t hit 100° officially at KCI since July 12, 2018, and before that it was back in 2013. So for whatever reason, getting to 100° at KCI is a struggle around these parts unless we’re in a drought like back in 2012.

Obviously the heat index will be substantially higher. I think yesterday it maxed out on the hour at 108° but there were probably higher numbers mixed in.

A cold front will slide into the area tomorrow. There actually could be some rain/storms in northern Missouri later today/tonight with that front. It’s not out of the question some sort of outflow could give the Metro a few showers/storms before daybreak tomorrow too.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and hot. Highs near 100°. Heat index near 110°.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, storms/showers (isolated) possible before daybreak. Lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow: Tricky forecast as cooler air comes in with clouds, but the heat will also put up a fight. There will be storm risks in the evening too I think. Highs around 90°. Cooler east and hotter west of the Metro.

Saturday: Some rain is possible, and again temperatures could be anywhere from the 70s to near 90. I’ll play it in the middle in the 80s.

Sunday: Nicer and lower dew points. Highs in the mid-80s.

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Discussion:

So today will be the third day of 95-plus degree weather in a row. Even though there is no true definition of a heat wave, we’ll run that this is a heat wave as of this afternoon. So there’s that. Last year we never did have three straight days of 95°.

The front that will be changing the weather locally is still to the north of the Kansas City metro area this morning. The front is still up in Iowa.

It will sag southwards today and tonight and with more instability building up in northern Missouri later today some storms are possible. Perhaps some stronger winds with the storms too.

So by 10 p.m. tonight, the HRRR model has this idea:

The model then weakens and kills the storms. My question is whether or not the storms will send out outflow (rain cooled air) farther to the south, and perhaps create a few showers/storms closer to Kansas City in the wee hours of the morning.

Ahead of the front there will be a southwest/west wind. That is prime heating for us in a hot air mass. Will KCI actually get to 100°? It’s questionable but since yesterday we hit 98° and the air mass is a pinch hotter today compared to yesterday, it’s certainly doable.

Then there are forecast headaches for tomorrow and Saturday. We do know that the front will push through. Just how much of a push we get tomorrow will determine how hot we can get. If the front sort of doesn’t push far enough south or west, then we should be back into the mid-90s. Some data shows this. Some other data shows that front pushes through and we have a somewhat cooler flow of air on the Missouri side pushing westwards.

The hi-res NAM for 4 p.m. tomorrow has this idea:

With scattered storms popping about this time as well.

Then a complex of strong storms develop overnight tomorrow into Saturday early. These may affect northern Missouri more than here, but again we’ll need to watch for outflow to create near storms closer to home. Here is the 4 a.m. Saturday radar look:

Northern Missouri may see some heavy rain from this activity.

Then those storms may skirt the region to the east. Here’s the 10 a.m. Saturday radar forecast:

With new development along some sort of front later in the day south of here.

I will be surprised if we break a 3-4 day hit of hot weather and we get very little rain locally from this transition. Typically it rains, and in some cases rains a lot.

This also creates a temperature headache for Saturday with more than a few models showing 90s again as we await the true cool air to move in. Then we have the NAM which is all about the cool weather for Saturday.

Take a look at the comparison.

The overnight GFS is all in on the heat too for Saturday.

Hence the reason for now I have mid-80s for the day. Odds are though if you want to escape the heat, head towards eastern Missouri!

We will get into the cooler air by Sunday and actually the early part of next week looks fabulous with lower dew point air as well.

The overnight EURO has these ideas for next week.

That’s pretty good into Thursday with nice AM lows as well.

That’s it for today. Busy day, so not a lot of time for blogging. More tomorrow. The feature photo comes from Chuck Carbajal out in Lee’s Summit, Missouri.

joe

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