Joe’s Weather Blog: The set-up for a nice weekend (and some frost) (THU-10/14)

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The 1st couple of weeks of October has been pretty darn warm…we’re close to 7.2° above average in the area. Impressive start to the month from a temperature standpoint and thus far every day this month has been above average for temperatures.

For perspective as we head into mid October the average high is 69° and the average low is 47°. Odds are tomorrow and Friday will break the run of below average temperatures and perhaps Sunday as well.

With this cooler weather comes the possibility of frost for some areas. Odds are IF there is an issue it would be more towards northern MO and NE KS as those areas typically tank more so than here in KC…but with lows approaching 40°…there can even be a few areas around KC outside the city that have their first “roof” frosts too! On average our first freeze comes around the 28th this month…but the 1st frost is typically around the 12th or so (of you go by lows of 36°).

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds later today and this evening. There will be the risk of a few showers developing after 9PM or so coming up from the SW. Highs around 70°.

Tonight: Scattered showers with a few storms possible. The activity may not be too widespread though. Amounts average under 1/2″ for most. Lows near 50°

Tomorrow: Blustery with showers ending before 10AM. Clouds give way to afternoon sunshine. Highs around 60

This weekend: Chilly mornings…near 40° (colder for some) and pleasant afternoons. Lower to mid 60s Saturday and near 70° Sunday.

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Discussion:

The last in a sequence of storms will be affecting our area overnight into Friday morning. This one though won’t have the punch that the others have had and as a result the rain amounts will not be as heavy.

The chances start to increase again later this evening….it should take awhile to saturate a pretty dry atmosphere and they should end quickly as a cold front moves through tomorrow morning sweeping the moisture away and setting up a delightful fall weekend around these parts.

The next chance of rain will be Tuesday in parts of the area as moisture returns.

Also of note…the models for about 5 days have been sniffing on the idea of a colder pattern for a few days around the 23rd-24th. This would be connected to a chunk of colder air coming out of Canada and dropping into the Great Lakes region. This is still on the table. I bring this up because there may be a light freeze for some areas with this…especially in northern/central MO…so a heads up to the gardeners out there. This would be very typical for late October.

Aside from that this is sort of interesting…this is our warmest start to the 1st 13 days of October since 1997. So it’s been awhile right?

I really don’t want to get too involved with this next minor system incoming for overnight tonight. Almost of more consequence would be the cold front coming into the area after the system moves on through. The trickier part of the forecast for tomorrow would be how quickly we clear out or break out into sunshine by later in the day. IF we don’t…we struggle around 55°…if we clear out faster we could pop into the lower 60s. Then with the cooler air moving into the area tomorrow night and the winds dropping off…we should really drop off…down to near 40° or so in the mornings over the weekend.

I saw that NOAA will be coming out with their winter forecast on the 21st or so…I thought I’d share this with you…from across the pond. The temperature forecast for DEC-FEB.

These seasonal EURO forecasts are so so in my observations for our country. They tend to be biased warm in my experience. I’m sort of intrigued by the signals of cooler/colder air in NW Canada. IF you go up 5,000 feet or so…and look at the world as a whole…

A lot of warmth in there with only a couple of pockets of cold…again NW Canada and into AK and also out in the Central Pacific. That would be connected to La Nina.

The water temperatures out there in the Pacific are forecast to be cooler than average, a signature of La Nina. It’s forecast to be a “weak” one but it may nudge into “moderate” range.

Also intriguing to ne is that warmth in the northern Pacific and to some extent what’s happening off into the Atlantic. All these things go into possible affects for winter forecasting.

This would be the 2nd year in a row of La Nina affecting winter weather patterns. Each of these though, from year to year are different. No two years are the same really. Last year we didn’t have a heck of a lot of snow around here…and we struggled to get any noteworthy snowstorms…also of note last year we had that dramatic 2 week stretch of bitter cold air that caused the blackouts and the big economic toll in the central US and especially in Texas!

NOAA just released this this morning about it.

“A La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

La Nina is one part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which is characterized by opposing warm and cool phases of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consecutive La Ninas following a transition through ENSO neutral conditions are not uncommon and can be referred to as a “double-dip.” In 2020, La Nina developed during the month of August and then dissipated in April 2021 as ENSO-neutral conditions returned.

“Our scientists have been tracking the potential development of a La Nina since this summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “La Nina also influences weather across the country during the winter, and it will influence our upcoming temperature and precipitation outlooks.”

This La Nina is expected to last through the early spring 2022. For the upcoming winter season, which extends from December 2021 through February 2022, there is an 87% chance of La Nina.

Previous La Ninas occurred during the winter of 2020-2021 and 2017-2018, and an El Nino developed in 2018-2019. When neither climate pattern is present, ENSO is neutral and does not influence global climate patterns.”

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Double dip La Ninas are actually not that unusual and there was one I think back in 2018 too. More on this down the road.

OK that’s it for today…the feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever out in Cummings, KS

joe

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