Joe’s Weather Blog: The surge of heat ends this weekend (TUE-7/27)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a decent but smoky start to the day in Kansas City. I noticed last night a lot of wildfire smoke working back into the area (it never really left) from the north. This smoke will continue to move into the area today. It will be a bit hotter today compared to yesterday. We only hit 90° yesterday. Today we’ll tack on a few more degrees, than a few more tomorrow and Thursday as well.

As it looks now Thursday will be the hottest day as we make a run towards 100°. I still don’t think we’ll “officially” get there at KCI, but we’ll be close. Downtown could get there though and a few other areas as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with smokey skies and highs in the lower 90s.

Tonight: Fair and a bit milder than this morning with lows in the lower 70s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and a bit hotter with highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices in the 100°+ range.

Thursday: Even hotter, highs in the upper 90s with heat index values near 105-110°.

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Discussion:

I showed this graphic last night, thought it was sort of interesting: the difference in the number of 85°+, 90°+, and 95°+ days compared to last year.

Really this summer hasn’t been too bad. The only category we’re beating last year is the 95°+ days through yesterday’s date at least. We’ll tack on a couple of more to that column into Thursday I think.

Overall this summer (June 1 through yesterday) is the 47th warmest in Kansas City weather history. Here are the warmest through the 26th of July:

So far we’re at 77.6°. Heck technically in July through yesterday, we’re actually about 1/2° below average for the month so far at least.

Through the course of the year, we average about 41 days with highs in the 90s. As the graph above shows, we’ve had 19. That’s about right for the end of July, perhaps a bit lower than average.

No need to go over the heat for the coming days. It will back off on Friday, how much remains to be seen as a cold front moves into the area switching the winds towards the northeast/east at some point. There may be some rain-cooled air from outflow from storms in north and northeastern Missouri that help this along. That will be the forecast issue for Friday: How much “less hot” air moves into the area? If enough, we’re only near 90°; if too little, we’re probably in the lower 90s.

Here is how things are more or less looking:

Wednesday highs
Thursday HIghs
Friday Highs

Rain chances will be there at some point, it just depends on the push of the front. Coverage of that rain looks more promising towards northern Missouri, but it’s tough to imagine a front being around and there not being anything locally at some point on Friday.

The better chance of rain actually may be on Saturday as we’ll be going into northwest flow aloft and a series of disturbances come down the pike towards the region.

The EURO/GFS maps are different in terms of their placement of heaviest rain with the GFS more into the Metro while the EURO is more towards northern Missouri. Use the slider bar to see the 24 hour rain total ending at 1 a.m. Sunday.

We’ll work on that aspect as the week moves along. At least there should be something I think and perhaps heavy rains for some.

Sunday should be the drier of the two weekend days it appears.

OK that’s it for today. No blog tomorrow as we settle into the core of the heat.

The feature photo comes from @PeopleofCowtown of the smoke-filled sunrise this morning.

Joe

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