It’s another bright and sunny start to the day in the region. After highs yesterday again in the upper 90s to near 100° for most of the region…today we get a small break in the extreme heat. A weak cold front moved through yesterday evening and today we’ll have more of a north wind and that will allow more reasonable summer air to move through the region.

The hotter stuff returns though tomorrow…and while we should avoid the 100° mark officially…the 2 days that have better chances of getting there or beyond are Friday and Saturday.

After that there may be some relief and for some…hopefully some rain!

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and less hot but still toasty with highs in the lower 90s

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the 70° range

Tomorrow: Hotter with highs well into the 90s

Friday: Highs creeping closer to 100°

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Discussion:

Yesterday’s heat was impressive for areas south of the Metro. Down towards OK and TX…another sizzler. Wichita Falls hit 115°. Oklahoma City tied their all time high for July at 110°. Places that are normally sizzling in the summer were at extreme levels.

Highs yesterday

The on the other side of the pond as they say…extreme heat again in the UK where Scotland and England both established national highs for their areas. In England…it wasn’t just one place that broke the national high…it was 34 places that eclipsed it. It would be the equivalent to 34 places in the USA hitting at least 135° (Death Valley’s 134° is our national high). 34 places!

That is unheard of…that is extreme and no matter what you read from folks who say this isn’t a problem…it is. More than 1000° have died from the heat in western Europe…perhaps closer to 2000 after yesterday. As mentioned Monday the vast majority…more than 90% don’t have A/C. They really didn’t need it but it’s becoming more and more apparent that these types of extreme heat events are becoming more common in areas of the world where the climate typically is more moderate and not extreme from a heat standpoint.

Last year we saw what happened in the Pacific NW and into western Canada…remember the extreme heat…national records established in Canada of over 120° in late June in Lytton

Yesterday it was the UK’s time…

The air mass that came northwards was actually born in the Sahara desert a week before hand.

Impressive there and impressive in the southern Plains of the US…

There were numerous records from Albuquerque to Arkansas yesterday and southwards.

The heat is just there…and while we dabble in it at times…we may not fully get into it. We’re likely going to skirt the northern fringes of it into the weekend.

After today there will be a return of the more extreme heat. This air mass building back north got knocked down by a weak front that moved into the region overnight.

That front will wash out today and the hotter air in the southern Plains will again slowly move back northwards tomorrow. The winds tomorrow won’t be enough to get the worst of the heat here but on Friday that may start to change as stronger south and southwest winds bring more of the heat up the I-35 corridor.

There is a chance we can get to 100° on Friday…and if not on Saturday which in the end may be the extreme heat day here.

The good news is that the northern extent of the more intense heat will start getting chipped away at by clouds and rain. There are signs that some rain may be out there on Sunday and especially on Monday. How much coverage to the rain we see remains to be seen. I have higher hopes for Monday. That should temporarily knock the heat back to the south again

Model guidance is showing a weak front moving in on Sunday…perhaps knocking the north side down into the mid 90s. That front will be south of here on Monday…and with a disturbance running north of the boundary…some rain is possible especially in northern MO where it should be beneficial.

I do have concerns though about how far south this gets. The EURO is a bit more bullish in total rain through next Wednesday compared to the GFS…

EURO

The GFS is concerning in rainfall for sure.

and the Canadian isn’t much better

So it’s concerning with out increasing drought that is consuming more real estate from I-70 northwards.

Since the middle of June…over the last 30 days…here are the anomalies

See how areas south of I-70 are struggling. KCI has had almost 4.5″ of rain since June 15th while both airports in JOCO towards Olathe have had under 1.5″…with Industrial airport below 1″

That’s why things have dried out so much on the south side more so than the north side.

Southern MO is really getting themselves in a pickle for rainfall…very dry down there.

The feature photo comes from Glenn Hemberger. Neat night time shot from Miami County

Joe