Joe’s Weather Blog: This summer was the hottest on record (THU-9/16)

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It’s going to be another bright and sunny day in the area with warmer temperatures. Yesterday we topped out at a seasonable 81° but today will be closer to about 85°. There are some wrinkles though in the data concerning tomorrow and also the timing of our seasonably strong cold front coming into the area on Tuesday with a decent chance of some widespread rain moving through.

There are also some clean-up items that I haven’t written about that I want to get too including the title of today’s blog.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and warm with highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s. There may be some showers around in the late afternoon/early evening especially north of I-70.

The weekend: Overall good but warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

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Discussion:

So there are a couple of data trends to bring up this morning, including a weak cold front that will move through the area tomorrow afternoon which may create some scattered storms/showers in the area…especially from I-35 north and west. I won’t promise much rain on this…but there may be some scattered activity out there

In the last 26 days…we’ve had 3 days with measurable rainfall. The good news is that in those 3 days…there were good rains for many…but it’s overall been dry and you can see that in the grass now. The combination of lower dew points and wind. along with full late summer sunshine have dried things out pretty much…so there is a bit of stress showing up in the grass at least.

Again I don’t want to overpromise a lot of rain from this minor front. The hi-res NAM from last night has this idea…

The new morning run of the HRRR model has this idea…

The bottom line is that the rain may have a tough time affecting areas S/SE of the Metro. This may impact some of the high school football games tomorrow evening. Also the haphazard nature of the cells popping. So I wouldn’t bank on a lot from this in terms of coverage.

The whatever front moves through will sort of dissolve away on Saturday. Dew points may be a bit higher though as the front fades away so it will be a bit muggy this weekend it appears with the warmer weather as well.

Then there is the seasonably strong cold front coming on Tuesday. Data overnight has sped things up a bit. Now bringing the front into and through the area early Tuesday. That means 1) more rain but faster late Monday and 2) a cooler Tuesday and 3) faster modification and movement of the cooler air mass through the area ono Wednesday.

So about 1). With the timing now Monday night and early Tuesday. Storms should move through faster. Rain amounts look to be decent in many areas but the timing of the front isn’t as favorable for stronger storms although there may be some stronger storms well west of the KC area.

Rainfall projections off the EURO.

The GFS isn’t too excited about a bunch of rain right now.

Odds are 1/4″ to 1″ is the best option for the area from the front moving through.

In terms of the cool down…one of the issues is exactly where does the upper level storm go. The farther north it is…the more the bulk of the cooler air stays farther north. Don’t get me wrong…we should get some cooler air. There will also be a downslope component to the air coming into the area so that too could take the edge off of things a bit.

Here is a comparison at 18,000 feet between the two models…note the subtle differences in the placement of the “dip” in the jet stream coming through the Plains. It makes a difference. Use the slider bar to see the comparison. Slide right for the EURO and left for the GFS

Then as we come down in the atmosphere to 5,000 feet…see the temperature anomalies adjust. The EURO has more cool air driving through the region whereas the GFS is sort of meh. As a result the GFS really just takes us to seasonable levels while the EURO is a few degrees cooler. Use the slider bar to see the comparison. Slide right for the EURO and left for the GFS

I do thing Tuesday will only be in the 70s and perhaps Wednesday as well. The morning lows on Wednesday though may dip closer to 50° in some areas…perhaps some 40s as well.

So there is our first real fall front coming in on the last day of summer. Fall starts next Wednesday afternoon.

Onwards…

Last week NOAA came out with the stats for where this summer ranked in terms of heat. For the nation as a whole…it was the hottest…even beating out the Dust Bowl summer of 1936. This was led in large part by the incredible heat that gripped much of the western third of the country.

See those 127 numbers…that represents the hottest summer in 127 years of records. See the 125’s-126’s from the upper Midwest through the Rockies…that represents the 2nd or 3rd hottest summers. Heck the NE part of the country was toasty as well. Here in the Plains not as bad but skewing warm for sure.

From NOAA…

“The average temperature during meteorological summer for the contiguous U.S. was 74.0 degrees F, 2.6 degrees above average. This technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F).*

A record 18.4% of the contiguous U.S. experienced record-warm temperatures. California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah each reported their warmest summer on record, as 16 other states had a top-five warmest summer on record.

The average summer precipitation total was 9.48 inches — 1.16 inches above average — making it the eighth-wettest summer in the historical record. Mississippi had its wettest summer on record while Alabama, Massachusetts, Michigan and New York had a summer that ranked among their five wettest. Meanwhile, Minnesota had its seventh-driest summer on record.”

Remember from a weather standpoint summer is defined as June through August. Fall is September through November.

Here is another way of looking and seeing who had the worst of things. Via NOAA.

Here is how things stack up year to date…through the end of August.

Now there are different data sets used for different things…but here is another look at the same idea for the hemisphere as a whole through yesterday.

This isn’t a perfect map but it gives you an idea of where things are. Look at all the yellow and reds.

A few other tidbits…

Then there’s this…

add another .12″ to that I believe. Maybe more. I’m not sure if that included the 2.9″ from yesterday.

Finally there’s this.

19 in the last 17 months too. Crazy down there.

The feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in Chariton, IA.

Joe

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