Joe’s Weather Blog: Warm with developing rains (MON-9/27)

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It was a hot weekend around these parts in a month that will go down as above average for temperatures. So far 7 days this month have been below average and all the other days have been above average. From a rain standpoint we’re running 1.5″ below average…although we may try and catch up a bit on the last day of the month.

The good news is that there is some rain coming…and hopefully by the end of the week a good chunk of the area could see over 1″ of rain. That is needed because it’s really dried out these last few weeks in much of the region. The combination of lower dew points…warmer days and gustier winds have dried the top soil quite a bit. So it really needs a recharge of moisture.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and breezy although not as prolonged as yesterday from a wind stand point. Highs near 90°

Tonight: Fair and warm with lighter winds. Lows in the lower to mid 60s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and very warm with highs near 90

Wednesday: Increasing clouds and warm with highs in the mid 80s. There is a small chance of rain but odds are most will remain dry.

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Discussion:

We’re getting an extended summer run in the region these last couple of days. Temperatures yesterday popped in the lower 90s and today will be similar. We’re now to that time of the year where the average highs and lows are in the mid 70s and mid 50s and dropping. So needless to say we’re well above average. This will continue into the end of the week although the highest temperatures will be dropping to a large degree.

The moisture situation is going to change and that’s important. For those who have overseeded or planted new grass…you’re gotten tired of using the sprinklers I’m sure. Odds are you want to get a drink of rain on the growing grass. Relief is coming. Take a look a the rain anomalies over the last 30 days.

The worst of the dryness is roughly from I-70 northwards.

Here is the relief to the dryness. It’s an upper level storm that has created some unusual late season rains in the southwest part of the country lately…especially around AZ.

It’s swirling down there and will be coming out into the western Plains and breaking up over the coming 4 days. Even though it will be breaking up…pieces will be strong enough to interact with moisture slowly coming northwards thanks to a persistent south wind. The atmosphere which overall is very dry…will get more moist starting Wednesday afternoon…and will be setting up for at least some scattered showers/storms developing to the south. These will be moving towards the north or even NNW.

So at least the chance will be developing later Wednesday although the better chances will come Thursday into Friday as the moisture will be sitting on us and various disturbances will be rippling up in the flow from the south. So any one of those will be able to generate some rains in the area.

The trick though is where is the rain maximized…and the data from last night has a couple of views. You can see the subtle differences by using the slider bar. Moving it right is the EURO data and left is the GFS data

My inclination is that by the end of the day Friday there should be decent coverage of 1/2-1″ rains in the area…with lighter totals towards the east of the Metro. Thankfully though there is still a lot of moisture around though into the weekend meaning at least the chance of rain will be around into Saturday it appears.

There also will be a cold front moving into the region as well…and that will drop the temperatures, perhaps to below average levels heading into the next week at least for a few days.

In other weather news…the tropics are still going pretty strong. Sam is out there and was a category 4 hurricane yesterday and still is this morning at least.

It may threaten Bermuda towards the weekend.

Here is a close-up…

It’s eye was cleared out yesterday and may be trying to clear out again today indicating a more healthy storm to some extent.

Sam is the 4th major hurricane of the season and according to the NHC…

“7 other years in satellite era (1966 onwards) have had 4+ major hurricanes by September 25: 1969, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2010 and 2017.”

There are some other disturbances out there that bear watching as well but at this point nothing looks overly concerning for the US Mainland

Our feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in IA.

Next blog is Wednesday

Joe

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