KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Let’s see if I remember how to do this thing called blogging… it’s been awhile.
Good Monday to you. Another hot day is on tap for the region today ahead of a weak cold front that will be moving into the region tonight. This front will switch our winds to the north and allow more seasonal air to move into the region overnight into Tuesday. This will be the last day of 90s for awhile I think.
The next issue is do we get storms to pop with the front and how strong will they be. I am concerned about potentially a derecho to form in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois later today. This may affect the Chicago region as well later, but for us the storms may be more scattered in nature. A few though may pack a punch as well.
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Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny and hotter again with highs in the lower 90s. Perhaps mid-90s on the south side. Storm chances increase after 5 p.m. or so.
Tonight: Storms are possible through midnight. The early evening storms may contain some hail or gustier winds with a chance of some localized severe weather. Lows dropping into the lower 60s by daybreak.
Tomorrow: Nice day overall with highs in the mid-80s.
Wednesday: Pleasant with highs again in the mid-80s.
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Discussion:
Last week I was at a weather conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Hadn’t been there in 40 years or so and it’s a beautiful city. It was my first conference with my colleagues in four years, what with COVID-19 and all. So it was nice to see some old friends and catch up with other TV meteorologists. Got some new ideas on graphics, etc. that I’ll be sprinkling into the shows every so often.
Onwards.
The rain over the weekend was appreciated. If you follow me on Facebook (Joe Lauria FOX 4 Meteorologist) you’ve seen the state of what was my pretty front yard in late May at least. No, not so much. I got about 3/4 inch. So that’s good. I went to one of our local wineries on Saturday and they had accelerated some grape picking in account of the potential for rain, this way the moisture didn’t get on or into the grapes at picking time. They decided to pick the grapes on Saturday based on the Saturday night forecast. They made the right move and this will allow better wine to be made down the road. I thought it was an interesting convergence of weather forecast usage and reality.
Today’s forecast is tied to a cold front that will be working towards the region over the afternoon and evening. The front this morning is up to the north of the area.
This front will slowly edge southwards today. Ahead of it, a fetch of hot and moist air is moving into the region this morning. Temperatures today should get into the 90-95-degree range. We hit 95 degrees on Saturday by the way, sparking off a few storms in the late afternoon north of the Interstate 70 corridor.
By the way, since the year started, that was the 16th time we’ve been 95 degrees or higher this summer through yesterday’s date:
We rank No. 48 I think in the record books going back to the 1880s.
What are the rain chances on Monday?
This front that comes into the hot and humid air mass will help trigger quite a bit of instability that will be building as the day moves along. Our models that show instability values in the form of CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) show values in excess of 2000-3000, which is pretty strong.
Sometimes you can have all that CAPE there, but there is no trigger. Today there is a trigger and that is the front coming into the region as the CAPE is just sitting there.
We may see a storm or two try and go up between 4-6 p.m. or so, but more widespread coverage of the storms is likely after 6 p.m. With that said, odds are not all will get in on the action for this. From the metro and southwards are the more-favored areas for storms to form.
Various flavors of the models show initialization between 5-8 p.m., with varying degrees of coverage. We’ll just have to see the environment setup when initiation starts. As of this morning, we’re in a level 1 or marginal risk of severe storms, roughly from the metro and south.
So we’ll be watching for this potential later this afternoon.
The strongest storms may well end up in the Chicago region, and those storms may be big wind generators too. Those are some higher-end wind threats up there into northwest Indiana.
After today though, the forecast looks to be tranquil for the rest of the week it appears, and that may include a good part of the upcoming holiday weekend as well. Temperatures may be running into the 90s, which isn’t too unusual.
So this may be our one and only rain chance for quite some time.
On another note, the tropics are still going though a somewhat quiet phase. There are some systems worth monitoring, but it appears nothing will be coming together over the next couple of days that will be named. That is a rarity in August and even more of a rarity is the lack of the season’s first hurricane before Sept. 1.
Like I said, there are several things out there. One is being watched the most, but it’s really struggling with shear and dry air being brought into the system from the north.
My guess is after today, the tropics may be about the only thing to talk about for quite some time.
The feature photo is from Mary Jo Seever. Friday night lights!
Joe
