KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s been pretty miserable around here from a weather standpoint. Clouds, rain, snow, graupel, and wind… so much wind. Today minus the precipitation, it’s starting much the same way, but sunshine will finish the day. While we’ll remain cool, it will be warming up substantially over the weekend.

As we come into the middle of April, there are several setups for stronger storms trying to show their faces. The details of the setups are typical for the spring season, and one of those ingredients that we need to get toward is warmer weather. That will start happening over the next few days after a hard freeze tomorrow morning.

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Kansas City forecast:

Today: Clouds through mid-afternoon, then clearing and cool. Highs rebound later today into the mid-40s.

Tonight: Clear with a hard freeze and lows in the mid-to-upper 20s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and milder with highs in the low to mid-60s

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Breezy as well, with milder temperatures. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

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Discussion:

Well we knew it would be miserable for Opening Day, but at least the Royals overcame the weather and things worked out in the end. That looked pretty rough watching it on TV, and if you were out there, props for enduring the football weather for the start of baseball season. Better days this weekend to watch some baseball!

The clouds are going to depart, but they’re still extensive this morning. Overnight areas of snow moved through parts of the region. There was even a coating of snow towards Warrensburg, perhaps in your area as well.

Not what you want to see in April.

The story overnight is the cold. As skies clear out later today, with light winds developing overnight and into tomorrow morning and with a cool/dry air mass in place, we’re sort of set up perfectly for a cold morning tomorrow. Last Saturday, we tanked to 25 degrees, not sure why we can’t get close to that tomorrow morning.

As a result, a freeze warning is in effect for the region. Things are starting to grow a bit. Not a lot yet, but some. So gardeners may need to cover up their less hardy plants etc.

You can see the extent of the hard Freeze Warning on the next map. All the counties in purple are under it: That’s everybody!

Once we see the sun tomorrow, things will warm up, and 60-65-degree weather is likely in the afternoon.

Sunday will get even warmer as we watch a cold front slide into the region later in the day from the north. That front will likely pass through without fanfare in the afternoon. Although behind the front, some overnight Sunday showers/storms into Monday morning are possible as the front settles into southern Missouri.

After highs well into the 70s on Sunday, we’ll back way off on Monday into the lower to mid-60s or so.

That front will settle toward Interstate 44 and stall. Then, it’ll start coming back north as a warm front on Tuesday and thus starts the buildup to severe weather risks over a two-day period.

Severe weather risks in Kansas City

Starting Tuesday as the front retreats back to the north, we’ll become warmer and more unstable as moisture returns in conjunction with the northward moving warmer air mass. Dew points are likely to be in the 60s for the first time this season I think. We will be more or less uncapped and the dry line separating the Gulf moisture from the drier western Plains air will be in the central part of Kansas.

The dry line is denoted by the brownish line. The warm front is the red line.

By itself, this doesn’t mean storms. We need more of a trigger to get storms to fire, and that trigger usually is an upper-level disturbance that may be coming up from Texas in the south-southwest flow of air above us. Depending on that wave, stronger storms are possible starting later Tuesday afternoon or evening.

That is one opportunity.

The next opportunity comes the next day as a stronger storm aloft comes into the Plains states. This should be an outbreak-type day in the Plains. The questions then become: Are the storms developing close to Kansas City? Or do they mature farther west in the central Plains region and then come to us in a squall line with severe weather risks connected to that?

The upper-level storm is going to be a strong one, with a blizzard possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday. This will also bring a wind storm to parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas with blowing dust coming into the surface storm out west.

The forecast map for Wednesday afternoon looks like this:

That dry line moving through central Kansas will be a catalyst to stronger storms.

Another issue: Is this the correct portrayal of the storm system? Some other models have different solutions without the severe weather risk on Wednesday. I do favor the EURO solution right now, although I’m not as convinced about the Tuesday scenario at this point.

So next week, if nothing else, looks active. Oh, and with the colder air dumping into the region at some point next Wednesday (and with the colder weather expected in the area next Thursday), depending on where the upper-level storm ends up, more flakes of snow aren’t out of the question next Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has this idea for Tuesday:

And Wednesday:

So next week, at least for a few days looks rather busy.

The feature photo comes from Tedd Scofield.

Joe