Some delightful summer weather in the region yesterday, and for that matter after a nice cool start this morning it should be fabulous once again this afternoon. I forgot to mention that this past Monday was the date where the average high starts it’s slow descent as we come out of the hottest time of the year, on average.

This past Sunday…the average high was 89°…then on Monday it was 88°. This gradual descent takes us all the way down to 38° on January 5th…so there’s that. We’ve also lost about 1 hour of daylight since the 1st day of summer so it’s not your imagination…the daylight is shrinking at the rate of 2-3 minutes per day.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant for August with comfortable humidity levels. Highs in the 85-90° range. Seasonable really.

Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the lower 60s.

Tomorrow: Near 90

Friday: Near 90°

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So I was playing some golf yesterday at the Buck O’Neil Charity Classic for the NLBM in KC. One of my playing partners asked me to dig us some research on the commonality of 70s for highs from April to the middle of June. I think there were 19 days or something along those lines…

It got me to thinking though…what has been the most common high temperature range in KC (officially up at KCI) so far this year? In other words was it the 20s…30s…60s…etc.

So that led to me doing a LOT of number crunching…here is what I came up with…the percentages have been rounded up.

The precise numbers show that highs in the 80s have happened 42 times this year…including yesterday. The 60s are next with 35 occurrences followed by the 90s with 34 (very close). So far, and summer isn’t done yet obviously…we’ve been just as likely to have highs in the teens or lower than into the 100° range…both have 3 occurrences apiece.

So if you want to do groupings…let’s drop the teens and 100s. Focus on the 20s + 30s:. Total: 26 times. 40s + 50s: 49 times 60s + 70s: 64 times and finally the 80s and 90s 76 times.

So some weird ways of playing with the numbers. Out of the 221 days so far this year…34% of the days have had highs in the 80s and 90s. This will change though towards the end of the year as the lower ranges come back into play…especially the 30s -> 50s.

It would be a fun exercise to do towards the end of the year.

Onwards…

The heat rebuilds over the weekend as discussed in yesterday’s blog…from there though there may be some change showing up…and perhaps some rain. A weak front may come down on Monday late or Tuesday as we try to go back towards NW flow aloft. IF this can happen…monsoonal disturbances coming around the dome of the hot air generator can lead to storms and potentially some needed rains.

Here is a look at the flow aloft at around 18,000 feet off the EURO…and granted this is 6 days away. The dome of heat is centered to the west of the area…

Disturbances come around the dome from the bottom…through northern Old Mexico into the SW US…then through the Rockies…then into the Plains…and voila…potentially rain makers in the Plains, including the Metro area as well.

So there is sort of a set-up there…let’s see how things play out. The EURO is most aggressive with the rain potential…the GFS/Canadian aren’t cranking out the beefy totals.

So something may be in play…early next week…but how much and how many opportunities remains to be seen.

That’s it for today…the feature photo is from DeAnna Blair out in Shawnee…of Moonflowers.

Joe