I know that this is probably not the headline you wanted to read before all of this weekend’s activities and graduation festivities, but it’s something we’re watching closely.
If you want to skip to the video forecast from midday Friday, you can obviously watch that above.
If you want a bit more detail about our thought processes regarding Saturday’s severe weather threat, I’ll do my best below.
We’ve got a strong center of low pressure and a couple of different fronts that become the focal point for our severe weather threat on Saturday.
As this creeps closer, we’ve got a couple of different rounds of strong to severe storms possible Saturday.
We’ve been placed under a “slight” risk for severe weather for Saturday.
As we often mention, this is the second of five categories of severe weather risk. Despite its somewhat nonchalant sounding name, it’s actually something worth paying attention to.
Some of the main severe weather threats I’m expecting Saturday are wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and some rather large hail. Flooding is going to be a major concern over the next few days, yet again.
I can’t rule out a tornado or two to develop Saturday as well, but I wouldn’t classify that as a main threat.
Just another reason to be “Weather Aware” during the day Saturday.
This is where the timeline becomes a little bit more difficult. I’ll give you the best explanation on the variables and what we’re expecting to occur during the day on Saturday.
We’ll start with some light showers around sunrise, but severe weather won’t be an issue at this point.
By late morning and into the early afternoon hours, things become a bit more difficult.
Looking at the above image you’d probably think it’s going to rain the entire day. I don’t particularly think that’s the case, but I wouldn’t plan on it being too dry either.
The issue we’re looking at right now is that some of our computer models have it raining all day — while some give us periods of dry weather. This is where the human element of a forecast is important vs. some of the weather apps we rely on a little too frequently.
I’d expect our first round of potential severe weather by late morning and into the early afternoon before a little bit of a break, personally. It may not be a long break from rain, but it may be a lull in the severe threat heading into the evening.
Even if we avoid the severe weather threat, I’m still expecting rain chances to continue to rise into the evening and overnight hours.
That means your outdoor plans will likely be pushed inside at some point, even if there’s a lull in the rain.
Later on as the cold front works its way into the metro, we’ll encounter a second round of strong/severe storms.
As I mentioned in the graphic above, I believe our primary concern is gusty wind and hail, but a tornado is not out of the question.
Once this system passes early Sunday morning, expect another 1-2 inches of rain area wide. It’s very possible some localized flooding will occur as well with some of the storms reaching 3-4 inches locally through Sunday morning.