Joe’s Weather World: A pretty decent week ahead with a few rain chances (MON-4/20)

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A mix of clouds and sun with a few showers are starting this week in the KC area. Overall it’s going to be a MUCH more comfortable week from a temperature standpoint. 60s and 70s are the most likely this week with overnight lows above 32°. There aren’t any really cold shots of air coming our way for awhile…so it looks like we’ll avoid more frosts and freezes for the rest of the month perhaps.

Of note as well is a lack of any real threats for severe weather locally. This has been a rough month for the deep south. Yesterday and last night there were more tornadoes down there and strong straight line winds.

The Plains though has seemingly started slowly. Although there may be a few scattered severe storms tomorrow in OK. There have been a few though out there. Yesterday out towards Dodge City there was a prolific hail producer. Nothing though very widespread and the pattern isn’t really supportive of anything for awhile.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds turning mostly sunny this afternoon with a few morning showers scattered around the region. IF it does rain it won’t be for too long. Highs well into the 60s.

Tonight: A weak cold front will come through with fair skies. Lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: A nice day with pleasant conditions and a bit breezy. Highs in the 60s

Wednesday: Our best chance of rain, potentially a decent soaker with highs in the 60s before the rain arrives and then dropping temperatures into the 50s.

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Discussion:

I’ll start this off with a look at radar…there may actually be some stronger storms down towards southern MO later today…but for the KC area just some quick hitting showers.

The satellite pics show a fast moving disturbance…

Moving on…

There are 2 big stories I think for the week overall…1) will be the the rain chances on Wednesday…especially from KC southwards and 2) will be the warmer air coming back. Nothing crazy but compared to the weather last week…so much more comfortable for the later part of April.

We are also slowly coming into the wettest time of the year. May and June are the two wettest months…we’ll see when the pattern changes again but after Wednesday there isn’t a lot of big weather coming for the rest of the month it appears…just a few rain chances every so often.

Let’s start with item #2…the temperatures. It’s been a lousy last 10 days or so, although we started to recover over the past weekend.

Average temperatures over the past 10 days…we ran about 10° below average.

There is a lot of negative anomalies this month so far. We’re running about 4.5° below average for the month as we’re now 2/3rds into the month. Take a look.

Date/high/low/average/ANOMALY

13 below average days and 6 above average days.

So we’re going to see somewhat of a relaxation of the pattern but not a total one. This means that yes we’ll get rid of the coldest air from last week…but it’s not exactly a screaming warm pattern. With the ups and downs expected..we may finish the month still decently below average.

At least though for the next 10 days…it’s better.

Colder air is more likely out to the east overall.

There are indications that heading into the 1st week of May it will be warmer than average for a bit more of a sustained time.

OK…onto item #1…a better chance of some more widespread rain in the region on Wednesday. This is associated with a wave coming out of the western US…and strengthening as it approaches the Plains and moves south of the area.

You can sort of see it off the coast of CA…it will become more apparent heading into the day tomorrow.

As we go up to about 18,000 feet or so…we can track that “dip” in the jet stream…it’s “U” shaped as it moves into the southwestern US and then into the southern Plains region.

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…0Z is 7PM…6Z is 1AM and 12Z is 7AM

It’s actually a pretty decent wave in the scheme of things.

So as this comes into the Plains…moisture will come northwards. You can see that better as we look at the moisture in the atmosphere overall…this is done by looking at the Precipitable Water or PW below about 20,000 feet or so.

This is for Wednesday afternoon

Nearly 1″ of moisture…that’s not too bad really about 100-150% of average…so the atmosphere from the mid levels to the surface will have moisture to work with…now the wave needs to get that moisture to lift…condense…then have the resulting rain…

It looks promising.

By tomorrow night the wave will be moving through northern NM…then into KS..then south of KC by Wednesday afternoon and while it appears the better rains will be south of the area we get something…and odds are favoring somewhere up to 1″ of rain…higher south and lower north it appears. Here are a couple of models to gander on.

GFS forecast into late Thursday

and the EURO…

You can see the EURO is about 2 counties farther north with the decent rains. I think the EURO may be onto something with the further north scenario.

So a wetter Wednesday on tap and depending on the rain timing…we may be rather cool on Wednesday, as in 50s cool IF the rain gets here a few hours after sunrise. IF it waits a bit we could be warmer but the 50s are looking more likely.

Our feature photo comes from William Johnson of the sunset yesterday!

Joe

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