Joe’s Weather World: Incoming brief cold…maybe some flakes (TUE-2/25)

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Well unless something significantly changes this will go down as as a TOP 20 mild winter in the KC region. Data through yesterday has us in 19th place…and we may trend up a spot or so before the end of the month.

Our winter average right now is 35°…not including today which will be a near>slightly above average day. Tomorrow will be a chilly one…then we’re closer to average on Thursday and warmer for the last two days of the month.

There are no big storms coming locally for a few days..through the weekend. The system coming for tonight is going to struggle to do a lot for us it appears. There may be some non-accumulating snow around it appears.

Don’t forget…Saturday is a leap day this year…so there are 29 days in February.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with cool temperatures but not overly cold. Highs 40-45°. There may be a few sprinkles.

Tonight: A few sprinkles/flurries possible this evening. Maybe a few patches of light snow overnight especially south and east of KC. A minor accumulation is possible (under 1/2″ in a few spots) but this won’t impact the roads tonight. Lows in the 25-30° range.

Tomorrow: A brief morning snow shower before 8AM? Chilly with more sunshine. Highs in the mid 30s+

Thursday: Cold in the morning…20-25° then seasonable in the afternoon with highs in the mid 40s

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Discussion:

This winter…ugggh.

As you know I do enjoy the snow…and I was telling a colleague of mine last week that I feel rather “unsatisfied” about the snow we’ve seen so far this year. Every single system has been a struggle i think (or so it feels) with nothing really “coming through”.

It started early but it’s sort of pittered and pattered all season long in my opinion.

December was 6.4° above average…January was 3.5° above average and this month is running almost 2° above average…it’s a miracle we’ve had almost 18″ of snow this season.

The longest stretch of below average temperatures was back in mid-December with 5 straight days. February 13th and 14th were the two days in a row with the coldest relative to average. Every time it got cold though we couldn’t lock it in…and this is probably the result of the crazy positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) that’s been raging all winter long. I blogged about this over a week ago.

It’s the reason it’s been seasonably cold (finally) in the arctic region and colder than average (finally) in Alaska as well. When those areas are really cold for a sustained time…and the jet stream isn’t as buckled as last year was…the cold air remains bottled up in the northern latitudes.

Let’s check in with Fairbanks, AK…note all the orange dots above the “normal” shading through mid December then notice all the blue dots below the “normal shading from there onwards…that’s some colder than average weather. They’ve bounced around a bit this month however.

So this forecast didn’t work out too well…

It really hasn’t been “icky” around here. We’ve had numerous days with big breaks in the temperatures this winter…50s and 60s.

Garry and I were talking about the fact that we’re getting to the point now where IF there is going to be anything over 1″ of snow…it may be a biggie…or nothing at all. What I mean by that is this march will be a struggle to have the cold air and the storms coming to sync up…that’s been an issue all winter too. Well now that the average highs are approaching 50°…it will really be a struggle.

The data today shows some nice storms coming through the Plains over the next 10 days…but again the cold air that leaves us Thursday afternoon may struggle to get involved in the area with the incoming storms.

Onwards…

The system today is a hot mess and I’m not overly thrilled about the accumulating snow risk in KC as I talked about yesterday on the news.

  1. We’re going to warm into the 40s today. That isn’t a good sign as the cold air is going to come in later tonight.
  2. The storm is actually going to be pretty far west…perhaps too far west to really put us in the right spot. Which is a shame because it’s actually a good looking storm

3) Radar shows a decent area of snow out west…but that is attached to the storm and since the storm is out there for now it’s not coming our way for now at least.

The cold air to support snow doesn’t really get here till later tonight after sunset. By then the precip part of the system will be pushing away from the KC area. It’s not out of the question something snowy may try and fill in right on the back side as the colder air is dumping into the moisture left behind…but it’s tough to get a lot from that.

4) Pavement temperatures will remain warm through the late night. 40s today mean near 50° pavement temperatures and with a lack of rain/snow for most of the day…the roads should retain that warmth for awhile tonight. So whatever would fall would melt. I guess there is the possibility of some morning black ice…but the wind tonight will increase to 15-25 MPH and that will tend to dry out the pavement.

5) Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 20s…again with the warmth in the pavement there should be a lot of drying before things become vulnerable. Worth watching just in case.

6) A lack of precip production when we’re cold enough to finally get snow locally. That’s the big thing…

7) It’s the winter of 2019-20…things just aren’t working out well for us. It’s like pulling teeth to get snow around these parts.

So with all that said…I’m not expecting an impactful snow in KC at this point. Areas out towards 65 highway east of KC …maybe. Even there I’m not exactly thrilled.

So it goes this winter…

Our feature photo is from the fine folks at @PeopleOfCowtown…celebrating Mardi Gras KC style!

Joe

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