KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s been quite a few years since the Kansas City metro has had a white Christmas, or even a really good one.
The Farmers’ Almanac also recently released its winter forecast earlier this month for 2023-24.
It predicts snow to begin arriving in November in the Northeast and Midwest parts of the United States with storms, showers and flurries continuing into the start of spring.
Its winter prediction for the Midwest and Kansas City metro is for precipitation and snowfall to be slightly above average with the snowiest period happening in late December and early to mid-January. Also, expect a white Christmas.
According to FOX4 Meteorologist Joe Lauria, to have a white Christmas you need to have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. It could be snow that has already fallen or that falls on the day itself.
In this case, the last white Christmas we saw in Kansas City was 2017 with the metro getting between 1-2 inches with the highest amounts across northern Missouri, according to the National Weather Service.
Kansas City has had a white Christmas once every five years on average and it’s long overdue.
The last decent white Christmas the Kansas City region has had was probably 2013 with 4 inches on the ground Christmas Day.
The Almanac also predicts this winter to be colder than normal with the coldest periods occurring in early and late December, early January and early February.
These forecasts are often released well in advance of the months they cover.
Both publications, which claim to be 80% accurate with their forecasts (research shows only about half of the forecasts produced by the Farmers’ Almanac were correct), rely on secret formulas to create their predictions.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac says its formula, created in 1792, uses solar science (observing sunspots and solar activity), climatology, and meteorology to develop its long-range forecasts. They compare “solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.”
The Farmers’ Almanac says it does not use “computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore, or groundhogs,” but instead employs “a specific and reliable set of rules” developed in 1818.
The Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s also rely on sunspot activity when crafting their predictions. The Sun is currently a few years into an 11-year solar cycle in which it flips its magnetic poles. This can cause space weather, which can lead to stunning Northern Lights shows visible on Earth or disruptions to radio transmissions and power grids.
So can you trust the almanac predictions? Ultimately, it’s up to you.