KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The first public poll for Kansas’ abortion amendment on the August 2 ballot shows the race is close.

According to the Co/efficient poll shared with FiveThirtyEight, 47% of Kansan voters plan to vote “Yes” on the ballot measure, while 43% plan to vote “No.” Ten percent are undecided.

“It certainly looks like from the data that the amendment will pass,” Ryan Munce, Co/efficient President, said in an interview with FOX4 Wednesday. “I think it will be closer than most people might suspect.” 

Munce does not think this vote will be right along party lines, nor will the vote be a landslide.

“What this data shows is that because Republicans are a little bit more split than Democrats as well as Independents seem to be leaning pretty firmly to the ‘no vote,’ what that leaves us with is a close call, but it does appear like it’s going to pass you know by at least several points,” Munce said.

When it comes to Republicans, 68% say they’ll vote ‘yes’ on the amendment. Another 18% say they’ll vote ‘no.’

That compares to 86% of Democrats who say they plan to vote ‘no’ on the Value Them Both Amendment.

Munce believes that Democrats are concerned abortion will be banned at a later point in time if the Value Them Both Amendment passes. 

“Much of both the coverage and the narrative has been less about the specific action, say overturning Roe vs. Wade or this particular amendment and more about, ‘What could be If?’ And this is no different here,” Munce continued. “Most of both the media coverage and the folks that are actually engaged in the campaign, they’re all more so talking about ‘What could be if this passes?’ more so than what this actually means and what it does.”

The poll shows that 49% of people agreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade, with 46% disagreeing.

According to Vote.org, Kansas saw a 1,038% increase in voter registrations following the SCOTUS deicision.

If the amendment on the August 2 ballot passes, it would remove the constitutional right to an abortion for Kansans. If it fails, there would be no change.

Forty-three percent of Kansans want no restrictions on abortions, but only 5% agree with a total ban. Nineteen-percent are okay with exceptions in the case of rape, incest and health, according to the poll.

“This is going to be a close race,” Kansans for Constitutional Freedom and ‘vote no supporter’ Ashley All said in a statement Wednesday. “This poll demonstrates exactly why they forced this amendment onto the August primary instead of the November general election. They hope fewer Kansans vote. They want to eliminate the constitutional rights of women to make private medical decisions so the legislature can ban abortion completely with no exceptions. We will continue to talk to Kansans about how this amendment will mandate government control of our private medical decisions and pave the way for a total ban on abortion.”

“We’re encouraged because we know Kansans do not support the radical pro-abortion agenda of the left,” Value Them Both and ‘vote yes supporter’ Mackenzie Haddix said in a statement Wednesday. “These poll results are further evidence that voters reject a future that includes a 1,000% increase in abortions paid for with our tax dollars and understand Value Them Both must be passed to avoid this increase.”

The election is just under two weeks away with advanced voting underway.

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