TOPEKA, Kan. — A leaked draft authored by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito suggests the majority of the court has voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, according to a Politico report published Monday.

The Midwest will likely have very restrictive abortion laws if Roe v. Wade is ultimately overturned, University of Missouri-Kansas City law professor Allen Rostron said.

That will likely be the case in Missouri and could even be true in Kansas.

“Perhaps not prohibiting abortion completely in every instance, but there probably will be very significant restrictions because that’s the majority view of the politicians that are elected in these states,” Rostron said.

A Missouri law passed in 2019 could make abortions illegal if the court overturns Roe v. Wade in its final ruling. Three years ago, the legislature passed a bill banning abortions after 8 weeks. Currently a woman can get an abortion up to 22 weeks in Missouri.

The new bill does not allow exemptions for rape or incest survivors. It also includes a trigger law, meaning women could lose all access to an abortion in the event that Roe is overturned.

“If Roe V Wade is overturned and the power is given back to the state, we are going to exercise that power to effectively eliminate abortions in the state of Missouri,” Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden (R-Columbia) said Tuesday.

A day before the law was set to go into effect, a federal judge blocked it. It’s still held up in court years later.

“First the courts would have to dismiss that lawsuit, then the attorney general or the governor could make their opinion or do a proclamation to overturn,” House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield) said.

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt said Tuesday he’s “prepared to immediately issue the opinion that would protect the unborn in Missouri.”

On the other side of the state line, action might not be as swift, but access to abortion services could change — depending on a statewide vote.

In Kansas, the group Value Them Both has put a measure on the ballot for the August primary election that could reverse a state supreme court ruling. The justices held that the state constitution gives women the constitutional right to an abortion, effectively limiting regulation by state lawmakers.

If the measure passes in August though, supporters believe it would return the power to regulate abortion to the people through their state lawmakers. 

“Traditionally, Kansas overall has been a very pro-life state, and so one would expect that they’re probably likely to vote in favor of allowing or overruling their courts there and allowing greater restrictions,” Rostron said.

He doesn’t think this will have a big impact on the U.S. Senate race in Missouri because the state’s so conservative already. But the question now will be, how much backlash will there be on Republicans in November, now that the draft ruling is out.

“It will fire up pro-choice voters, and they’re more likely to donate money, and they’re more likely to work for campaigns, and they’re more likely to vote,” Rostron said. “It could, on the other hand, also fire up pro-life voters as well.”

Rostron added that pro-life voters could be really pleased that the Supreme Court could overturn Roe v. Wade, making them realize that the way they got to this point was by going to the polls.