US nears peak coronavirus death rate, health statistics organization predicts

Tracking Coronavirus

SEATTLE — The United States is nearing its peak rate of death due to the coronavirus, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The organization, which is part of the University of Washington in Seattle, predicts American’s will see the most deaths in one day on April 12, totaling more than 2,200.

The peak date fits what President Donald Trump and other health officials have said during news conferences. On April 4, Trump said that the county could be headed into its “toughest” weeks yet.

“There will be a lot of death, unfortunately,” Trump said.

The IHME predicts a shortage of 15,852 beds, including a shortage of 9,047 intensive care unit beds, on the country’s most demanding day. It also predicts the country will need 16,524 invasive ventilators.

After that, predictions show number of deaths drastically falling through the end of April and May, leveling off to nearly zero deaths throughout the country by June 1.

However, these predictions are based on the presumption that full social distancing measures remain in effect through May 2020. It’s unclear what “full” implies.

The models suggest that, with these measures, the total number of deaths in the country will rise to a little more than 60,000. This figure is about half the number of deaths first predicted by White House officials.

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