It’s been warm and even occasionally windy the last few days. Those conditions will continue through most of Sunday as we’re back into the 80s, but we finally see a return to fall as this cold front to our northwest works its way into the area tonight.
The severe weather risk is mostly north and west of the metro tonight because of the timing during the daylight hours that this front offers. But I don’t want you to let your guard down. While we probably won’t get much rain from this, it’s the wind that could provide the most significant problem for us overnight.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s going to rain in a good portion of the metro. I think the better opportunities for some stronger storms with a bit more rain is further north, but the reality is this could be similar to our last widespread rain event a couple of weeks ago. The wind is significant just a couple of thousand feet above the surface. With dry air at the surface, any rain could force that wind and create some dry gusts over 50 or 60 mph. I think that’s the most significant focus tonight.
This may even go on after the front and rain move through. I think some common wind gusts between 40-50 mph are possible, with a small handful over 60 mph. This could be significant enough for some minor damage to trees, especially as leaves come off.
As a recap, this shouldn’t be an issue until after midnight or so. There will be a few decent bursts of rain, but it’s nothing to end our brief drought. Some miss out on the rain completely. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph are probably our main threat, and that’s not necessarily associated with some large thunderstorm. Things should calm down by mid-morning Monday.