Coldest Since February 12th!

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Well it’s been awhile, according to my colleagues at the NWS, our morning low of 18° at KCI was the coldest we’ve been since 2/12! Some 9+ months ago.

As I type this clouds are finally starting to thin out a bit, and while readings this afternoon are struggling to get to 40° as of this writing, we should pop another 5+ degrees during the course of the rest of the afternoon. Overall it should turn into a seasonable late November day around these parts (it’s supposed to be cold right?) Just for a little perspective, our average high is 49° for today. Also for a little more perspective, for the month so far, we’re running about 4° above average for temperatures.

Here is the latest satellite picture showing the thinning clouds moving through the region.

So far the winds have been in check, but out to our west, from Manhattan to Dodge City, the winds are gusting again, and we should see the winds pick up around here sometime later in the afternoon and this evening.

There are no real changes needed to the forecast from yesterday’s blog. Everything is going along as expected. A storm will organize to the south of the region Monday, hence the better precipitation chances to the southeast of the area Monday. Behind that a decent late November strength area of High Pressure will build in, but with a lack of snowcover and sunshine, the colder air associated with it should modify quickly and with the weather features moving quickly through the Midwest, the colder air moving in on Monday and Tuesday will depart on Wednesday. Another warming trend will commence from there, but there will be a weak clipper and a strong shot of arctic air that will slide to the northeast of here on THU. That needs to be watched as it’s not out of the question that should the clipper dig a bit more into the upper Midwest, we could get clipped by the same cold air mass. So there is a forecast conundrum possible later in the week. IF we do see a setback, it would be brief and the milder air would return next weekend.

Yesterday I blogged about a storm that was possible around the 3-5th, that is still on the table, although the latest EURO has the core of the storm up in the Dakotas, and just another cold front passing through the area on the 3rd or so. Ahead of this, gulf moisture should move into the area, with dewpoints of 55°+ possible, that’s pretty good for early December around here.

Strangely the model has the front stalling nearby, without any real push through the region. Again we’re talking some 8-10 days out here and I doubt that would happen. Interesting though to see it portrayed int eh modeling. There is really no true cold air from Canada behind this early December system for us…at least at this point.

One other thing. when looking at the latest EURO, it’s really hard to get excited at all IF your a winter weather enthusiast. I really don’t like the trends through the beginning of December and when you look at this map, for the 1st week of December, you get rather discouraged.

The map shows the probabilities of above/below average temperatures. IF you’re a winter weather lover, you don’t want to see a lot of red. Notice where the core of red is located…yup from Texas up the I-35 corridor into Eastern Canada. Not a good look at all for the start to the winter.

Just based on the “look” of things in early December, at this point our winter forecast of 14.3″ of snow is looking OK. See the previous blog(s) for videos and more details.

That’s it for today, enjoy the weekend!


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