If most of us could have our weather wishes come true, it may be for a perfect Sunday with a lot of sunshine and dry weather. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be the case for this afternoon as we’ve already started with some rain early this morning. There’s more where that came from this afternoon.
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The radar imagery above is from Saturday afternoon in the Dakotas. Why does this pertain to us? I think it gives us a pretty good indication of what’s the radar may look like this afternoon as the heating of the day progresses. That’s how a lot of these storms will pop up. Notice the clear skies and breaks in the rain in between. That’s what I want you to take away from this more than anything. There are going to be breaks from the rain, but you should be prepared to go inside if need be.
Precip forecast from this afternoon also shows a similar image. I would expect a few of the stronger and maybe larger thunderstorms to develop closer to the center of the low north and east. That doesn’t mean it’s the only area that’s going to get rain, but the metro may be on the tail edge of this system, especially points to the SW.
The center of the colder air above the surface associated with this low is in northern MO and southern IA.
Planning for Mom (and everyone else for that matter) requires you to have a plan B to get inside. While storms aren’t going to be severe, it’s possible some pea sized hail will occur because of the nature of that colder air above the surface. It won’t last long and you may be able to go back outside, but just plan for rain.
Your timing for rain chances occurs later in the afternoon with the “heating” of the day, but once again, a widespread rain is not expected, and our threat goes down after sunset.