KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Starting to get very strange out there. These last couple of weeks (and more) have been more March like than January like. Yesterday was the 10th day this month that we hit 50 degrees or higher.
We may not get back there anytime soon. Clouds will keep us below that today I think. But still, that is more 50-degree days than any other year except four others, and all of those also had 10 through the 16th as well.
The next system that has been affecting California is coming our way later tonight and tomorrow with a decent shot of rain, perhaps a few thunderstorms for some… and very little snow for KC. It’s another wet, but not white, storm in a winter of the same types of systems.
Things thus far are just not working out for snow lovers, and really it hasn’t even been close.
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Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Clouds break up, then partly cloudy with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s. Light winds.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with some light rain possible towards daybreak. Lows in the mid-30s.
Tomorrow: Morning rains, then we may get dry slotted in the afternoon. Rain amounts 1/4 -3/4 inch or so. Highs in the low 40s. Blustery in the morning with lighter winds in the afternoon.
Thursday: If we see any flakes from this it would be while you’re sleeping on Wednesday night. Turning mostly cloudy and blustery with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s.
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Discussion:
So let’s start with the item I mentioned at the top of the blog: the warm weather. Just another ho hum day yesterday with highs 50-plus degrees. What else is new? Through the 16th, it’s impressive.
Heck we actually hit 60 degrees briefly. That too isn’t so shabby for the first 16 days of the month.
No snow is expected today or tomorrow. We will go up a couple of notches in the least amount of seasonal snow through the 18th.
That would be the least amount of snow since the miserable snowless winter of 2011-12 where we only had 3.9 inches of snow for the entire winter. Our all-time record low.
This next system coming our way, not so much. The upper-level part of the storm will be passing towards the north of the region (again). This brings the heavy snow more towards the Interstate 80 corridor. Also westwards towards Colorado. Denver is expecting a somewhat unusual for them in January heavy snow event.
We’ll wave at that snow here towards the I-70 corridor. Just not in the cards for us.
With the track of the upper-level storm, we’re also likely to get dry slotted in the afternoon tomorrow, meaning we lose the better rain making from the warm side of the system. So the burst we get in the morning should be most of the storm’s affects on the region.
Meanwhile farther west…
That rain could be anywhere from about 1/3 to near 1 inch or so on the high side of things. There may be some early thunderstorms mixed in too perhaps.
As the surface storm passes by later Wednesday night and some chillier air wraps in behind it, we may see a switchover to a mix and then casual flakes before daybreak. I guess if that happens and there is some sort of wrap around to the storm, maybe we can see some minor coatings. That might be tough with temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s. If it can snow hard enough in some localized areas for an hour or two, it’s possible I guess.
Whatever.
It’s a bit frustrating for snow lovers and it seems to be the way winters have been going around here for quite a few years it feels like. We’re just not seeing the right combinations set up in the atmosphere. And when temperatures are so warm, as they’ve been since the pre-Christmas cold shot of air, it’s really tough to get the snow love. For those who want no part in the snow, you’ve got to be loving the trends.
How much longer can we keep doing this? Well to get snow, we need to get colder air farther south so at least it could be tapped. We’re not that far away from things though, essentially about a three-hour drive north. As mentioned, the I-80 corridor is going to take a big hit from this storm.
Weather around the U.S.
When looking at the seasonal snows so far:
It’s been pretty paltry for many areas:
- Chicago has seen less than 7 inches. That’s about 50% of their average.
- Des Moines, Iowa, is 5 inches below average, but should get closer after this storm.
- Omaha, Nebraska has had about 5 inches of snow. That is half of their average.
- Here in KC, we’ve had 1.7 inches, which is now more than 6 inches below average. That’s pretty substantial.
No big storms are expected for awhile although we should get colder next week for a bit. There are suggestions that things could get more interesting. But then the issue is will there be storms, or will they then get suppressed towards the southern U.S. There is some data that suggests “something” could happen over the weekend…mainly later Saturday. We’ll file that in the something to watch category for now…there’s a pirouette of upper level features that need to happen for this to be more of a reality, or at least a better risk developing. Like I said it’s being watched on my end of things.
Right now, I’m not seeing too many things to get thrilled about. At least there will be colder weather, and that at least cracks the door open to snows farther south.
Meanwhile, Iowa had themselves a day yesterday with several tornadoes.
These were the earliest tornadoes on record for them. Back in 1967, there were January tornadoes in Iowa, but they happened in late January, not the middle of January.
The Deep South may have themselves more severe weather as well from this storm, including tornadoes.
It seems we’re in weather no man;s land these days. At least it will rain.
The feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever in Cummings, Kansas.
Joe
