Joe’s Weather Blog: A pretty quiet week till the weekend (MON-1/18)


Overall, a chilly but not too bad of a weekend. Yesterday actually really warmed up into the mid 40s with sunshine in the area. A lack of snow cover and a good downslope component to the winds enabled temperatures to pop nicely.

The issue today is a fast-moving disturbance coming into a somewhat dry lower part of the atmosphere. There may be a lot showing up on radar today but the lower 8,000 feet of the air is pretty dry, so that should put up a fight for awhile today. There still may be some flakes or raindrops at some point though, especially in northern Missouri where there where could be some bands of light snow.

The next main system to watch is the weekend…which right now at least, and this could change, looks to be a rain scenario for Sunday.

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Today: Clouds giving way to clearing skies later today/this evening. Highs 40-45°.

Tonight: Variable clouds and seasonable with lows in the mid 20s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and pleasant for January with highs in the lower 40s.

Wednesday: Breezy and milder with highs near 55°.



A fast-moving disturbance will be coming out of Nebraska and streaking towards the east-southeast today. That’s the reason for the clouds and from the clouds there is some lift happening. Hence the appearance on radar of lots of precipitation.

The issue is what’s happening below the base of the clouds. There is still enough dry air to sort of evaporate the moisture which is falling from the clouds…in the form of snow. It’s not going to shock me today, especially later today, IF there are a few flurries in the area. The better risk of that might be more towards the north of Kansas City but it may be close.

This system will zip through the area because of the fast winds aloft…and we should be in better shape for most of the week. There is another system on Friday but that will be well south of the area. It will drag down some chillier air though for next Saturday but even that chilly air looks to be very transient.

We’re having a very difficult time in the Midwest to get any sort of Arctic outbreaks. We just can’t get the flow to lock in long enough to allow the bitterly cold air that develops up there to circulate down towards the KC area and stay for any length of time this winter. This was the case last winter as well if memory serves and it’s the case for the rest of the month as well.

There will be ups and downs through next week it appears without any lasting significantly cold weather. The system that comes in on Sunday appears to bring in warmth at first. Again, it’s almost a week out, so obviously this can change…but model data today at least supports warm air surging into the area…followed by colder air coming in next Monday. This could be enough to change things over to snow, but again we’ll see about that.

So far this snow season we’ve had a whopping 4.3″ of snow…that’s 50% of average.

This is our ninth-warmest meteorological winter so far (since 12/1).

It’s our 33rd-least snow winter through today’s date that is. So far at least. This week won’t help that cause. On Sunday, we’ll go up to about 28th or so for least snowy snow seasons (through the 23rd).

We’re not alone…

Look at St Louis…a whooping 1″. Concordia, Kan…2″. Chicago hasn’t even hit 7″ yet. There are some areas in the central Dakotas that are still below 10″.

The snow depth this morning is overstated in the KC area.

About 32% of the country is under snowcover.

There’s been a lot of chatter about the end of the month and the potential of lasting colder air. I too have blogged about the potential for at least “some” colder air…and “some” is likely but it’s becoming a bit less likely that it will be lasting cold air for the Plains. Just a strange winter (so far at least).

Five-day average temperatures to finish the month and start the new month are running more “less cold” than cold. Here is both the EURO ensembles and the GFS ensembles.

Scroll right to see the EURO and left to see that GFS ensembles. Milder look if nothing else.

Our feature photo comes from renee’murphy (@jenreneemurphy) of a pretty sunrise with a nice sun pillar as well.


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