Joe’s Weather Blog: A whole lot of mostly nothing (TUE-9/7)

Weather

We are about 15 days away from fall in KC and the weather is still more or less in summer mode. The nights though are showing some signs of cooling off and that will be the case for the next couple of nights as lows drop nicely into the 50s

The weather pattern has subtle changes coming but the chances for rain look pretty anemic…and assuming nothing happens locally today…there may not be rain in the area again till early next week (and that’s not a slam dunk either).

So overall…nice late summer weather on the way…which also will mean infrequent blogs this week until there is something more to write about.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny with some clouds popping in the afternoon. Turning breezy as well with highs around 90°. There may be some wind gusts to about 25 MPH or so later this morning into the early afternoon, A small chance of an isolated shower/storm after 4PM or so.

Tonight: Clearing out and turning cooler with lows 55-60°

Tomorrow: Great day with highs in the lower 80s

Thursday: About the same too.

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Discussion:

It’s going to basically be a rather nice stretch of weather around here. A taste of more summer today…and later this week…and a taste of some nice fall weather in the mornings.

Today the main item of interest is a cold front moving into the Plains. It will be moving through the region this afternoon…

The air ahead of the front is warmer and has higher dewpoints, which may approach 65-70° this afternoon. The air behind the front is drier and has lower dew points…also it’s a bit cooler too. We’ll be on that side of the front overnight into tomorrow.

The front will move through the area this afternoon. Ahead of the front though the winds will be more from the SW or switching towards the west. That reduces the “convergence” as the front is moving through…and that reduces the way the two air masses “bump” into each other to a large extent. That isn’t as favorable for storms to crank up.

It’s not out of the question though…and that’s why there is a small chance something could fire in the heat of the afternoon (since the front is coming through at a favorable time of the day). The better chance though may lie more towards central MO and south of US 50. We’ll watch and see how things play out.

Oh and the satellite picture is showing some decent smoke coming back into the region this morning so you may notice that as well with murky skies out there.

The front will push through the area later today…the winds will switch towards the NW…and the air will start to dry out. From there the weather gets really boring into the weekend. We should start to heat back up again to around 90° on Saturday. There are some minor questions about Sunday’s forecast with the progress and strength of the next cold front coming this way. Odds favor highs well into the 80s at this point BUT the GFS model is a bit more aggressive with the cooler push of air on Sunday…closer to about 80°. We’ll update as needed…obviously an important day for Chief fans!

The next decent rain signal is sometime next week…so we’ll worry about that down the road.

Other tidbits for you…hurricane Larry out in the Atlantic has been a strong hurricane now for quite some time. It’s a typical Cape Verde hurricane and will pass harmlessly out to sea over the coming days. It will still indirectly affect the eastern seaboard with larger waves, especially offshore.

That is one big eye as well…yesterday almost 100 miles from end to end.

Sort of neat to see the reflection in the wave heights in the Atlantic Ocean from the storm over the coming week or so. Notice how the waves increase then subside off the east coast with the higher waves then going into the northern Atlantic and eventually into the northeastern Atlantic as well.

So there’s that. Here is a close-up of the eye of the storm from Monday…pretty cool to see really.

It’s been an active 2021 season so far…needless to say. We’re up to the L storm now…more are coming towards the back half of the month.

The ACE score is one way of measuring the length of time storms exist and they’re strength BUT it shouldn’t be taken totally to heart because we really have no idea of the ACE scores from earlier days…before the 70s really because we didn’t have access to the satellite data showing us storms that we may not have had an idea existed or how strong they were…especially back before the 50s/60s.

Finally I thought this was interesting…the NWS office in Mt Holly which overs eastern PA and part of NJ and DE has had themselves quite the tornado season. They’ve issued so far 51 tornado warnings. That’s a lot for them. Which got me wondering…how does that compare to the offices out here…So I looked at the number of tornado warnings from Topeka/St Louis/Pleasant Hill/Wichita…added them all up and came to 48. ALL 4 of those Midwest offices combined didn’t even equal the Mt Holly office.

Here was my tweet from last night…and added up to 51 too quickly…it’s 48 really.

Another bizarre season of severe weather for the Plains.

By the way…we’re slowly coming into the “2nd” severe weather season…for the next couple of months or so. I don’t really put a lot into this locally. We have severe weather risks well beyond the typical severe weather season in W MO and E KS. Heck we had seemingly most of our severe weather this summer. We can have severe weather in the late fall too.

Be that as it may…as the jet stream starts dropping farther south…as the air masses get colder coming from the north and battling the warmer air towards the southern US…some bigger storms are possible…we haven’t really had a “2nd” season of severe weather in awhile it feels like…so there’s that too.

OK that will do it for today. I’ll get another blog out on Thursday then I’m off for the weekend.

The feature photo comes from Mr. Springer on Twitter…nice shot of the fog from Sunday morning!

Joe

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