Joe’s Weather Blog: And now the rain (THU-5/13)

Weather

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A beautiful morning out there with bright blue skies and crisp temperatures. There was even some patchy frost in some of the outlying areas this morning as lows dropped into the 30s.

Today will be the last really nice day for a while it appears. Rain chances start tomorrow morning and basically continue through Monday at least, if not beyond. Get those outdoor chores done today, or perhaps tomorrow afternoon because from there all bets are off.

Temperatures will remain below average it appears for awhile. I just don’t see how we can warm up into the mid-70s with rain all over the place through the weekend and into early next week. If there are breaks in the clouds, we can perhaps get a few notches warmer, but I’m not overly thrilled about any significant warmups for awhile as the cool May weather continues.

At least the severe weather threat is minimal for a while as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and pleasant. Highs in the 70° range.

Tonight: Fair skies with increasing morning clouds. Lows in the 40s.

Tomorrow: Showers possible in the morning. Then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid 60s. Breezy as well.

This weekend: Periods of rain and occasional rumbles on Sunday especially. Some dry intervals every so often as well. Cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

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Discussion:

I want to start with an update to the severe weather stats that I’ve been tracking for awhile.

If you’ve been watching or reading on the blog, we’ve been very fortunate thus far with not really having to deal with severe weather, to any great degree, in our area. There have been a couple of events: One this past Saturday night, and the other back in mid-March. The Plains overall have been fortunate as well. In April alone, the combination of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska only had 10 tornadoes(!) I think.

Here is some updated information through the 10th…

Overall this year, 403 + 1 tornado on the 11th in New Orleans… so 404 reports of tornadoes. There are some duplicates in there, so the reports will be filtered down in time.

There is still plenty of May left however, and we’ll see what the last 10 days bring with it closer to home but there doesn’t appear to be any great setups coming our way anytime soon at this point. There should at least be more instability heading into the last 10 days of the month, so it’s a step towards something bigger perhaps.

The tornadic activity has been mostly in the southeast part of the country.

This map is through the 28th of April

Again no complaints… let’s see how things go to finish May and head into early June.

The next five days don’t look to be that great, but at least the risk of severe weather is pretty minimal it appears locally. We just won’t get that warm or unstable to support any big storms. Not to say that we won’t get some thunder over the weekend. And with that comes locally heavy rain potential because that is on the table, especially for Sunday.

Rain will be with us starting tomorrow. Although tomorrow is a somewhat minor thing with a chance of morning rain and then scattered showers in the afternoon possible. Data shows odds are we’ll see under 1/4 inch of rain from whatever happens tomorrow, and perhaps even less than that. It’s a weak wave that will be coming into dry air as it comes into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Let’s see how well it holds up.

What it will do is help to saturate the atmosphere, and combined with increasing south winds and more moisture coming up from the southern U.S., the atmosphere will be primed to create rain with any wave or disturbance that comes through the region.

The model data is still suggestive of 1-3 inches or so of rain potential with all this into later Sunday night.

The EURO…

The GFS…

and the Canadian.

I’m sort of in that 1/2 to 2 inches range of things I think for many areas. It won’t necessarily come at once though. And while there will be some locally heavy downpours at times, flooding risks may be rather localized because of drainage time between waves of heavier rains.

I’m most confident in the rain into Sunday. Beyond that though, these waves have a tendency to rearrange the atmosphere after a certain amount of time. Some data today suggests that after Sunday, there might be a reduction in the coverage/intensity of rain on Monday and Tuesday. This is possible although I don’t want to hang my hat on it at this point.

The GFS model still shows over 5 inches of moisture over the next 16 days. The EURO has over 3 inches, so rain will be around and frequent it appears heading towards the end of the month.

A lot of folks are waiting for the warmer days as well. This I thought was interesting. So far this May, we’ve had five days with highs 70° or above. Last year and the year before that, through the 12th, we had four days. The lowest was once back in 1917.

So compared to the last couple of years at least, this is about the same in terms of slow starts to get warm. Keep in mind that 2019 was the Linwood tornado at the end of the month. Things can change quickly around the Plains.

Our feature photo is of the patchy frost that was out there this morning. This is from the Lawrence area from B&K.

Next update on the blog is tomorrow.

Joe

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