Joe’s Weather Blog: Are there any snowstorms in our future (THU-1/7)

Weather

I’ll get to the answer to the title to the blog in the discussion below. For now though, I should be asking is there any sunshine in the future. The answer is yes, but if we get some glimpses of the sun between today and Sunday, we should be feeling pretty good. It may not be until early next week when we finally break out of the winter gloom that is settling into the area.

With this situation, the morning lows don’t vary and the daytime highs don’t vary either. We may well stay in about a 5° range for the next few days. There could be a few “sucker” holes that open up and allow some extra warmth during the day or a colder night or two, but overall expect a lot of clouds.

The rain yesterday, was just that…rain. There were a few ice pellets and perhaps snowflakes for a couple of hours yesterday evening but nothing that was very widespread. A pocket here or there. Otherwise it was good moisture in the 1/4″ to 3/4″ range for many areas around Kansas City. Now we have a LOT of mud, and with limited sunshine and chilly raw weather, that won’t have a chance to dry out for awhile. We have though, at least for now, broken the drought that was hanging around.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy and cold with highs in the mid 30s.

Tonight: Cloudy and chilly with lows in the upper 20s to near 30.

Tomorrow>Sunday: Highs 30-35 with lows 25-30. Generally cloudy. Perhaps a few flurries.

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Discussion:

So yesterday I sent a text to a couple of my weather friends here in Kansas City asking them the question: How much snow do you think we’ll have between now and January 25. Verified at KCI. One said under 1″, the other 1-3″, and I said 1-3″ but just barely.

So in answer to my title to the blog…no I don’t see any snowstorms in our future for awhile at this point. The pattern gave us one lucky system on New Years Day, BUT it’s still a miserable pattern for snow lovers I think.

Where the pattern will be potentially a blockbuster for snow lovers is in 2 areas…one that isn’t too surprising, the other that is.

The eastern U.S. is getting set up for snow I think…and believe it or not…Texas and the deep south is setting up again.

The system this weekend going into Texas may be a “big” snow maker for them. Texas and snow aren’t often together in the winter. Ice is usually a bigger problem there. The Panhandle will get some big snows every so often though. The northern Texas area though doesn’t get a lot of snow. I think Dallas gets on average 1-2″ per year.

Obviously this may change but look what the guidance is suggesting for Sunday.

Well now, that’s impressive. There will certainly be some adjustments to all that, and it’s strictly a 10:1 snow ratio and the scenario may not call for that…but it gives you an idea that there could be significant snows into Texas and perhaps even northern Louisiana.

Oh, and stretching it out and using the ensembles off the EURO, which is probably a better bet at this point gets you this idea…and notice how far south and east this thing goes…and eventually it will go up towards the Mid-Atlantic states and perhaps northeast part of the country.

We’ll see how it does once it gets more eastwards towards the eastern seaboard.

Meanwhile the system from yesterday and this morning is creating a lot of snow, but towards northern Arkansas.

That’s pretty impressive and pretty at the same time.

That system was pretty much a swing and a miss for us. It just didn’t get cold enough above us for snowflakes to really make it to the ground

Now we’re set up with a lot of gray low clouds than will linger for days I think. Odds favor through the weekend mostly with perhaps a break here and there. The deck of clouds should be about 2-3,000 feet thick and its going to be tough to break up for awhile.

Now what will break this is more wind and warmer and drier air above us, and that should happen for a couple of days next week. Take a look at what happens at 5,000 feet starting Tuesday night into Thursday before we trend colder again for a bit of time.

This shows temperature anomalies at that level in °C. Nice blast of warmer air that could send temperatures into the 50s IF the timing occurs during the day. Wednesday and maybe Thursday have that chance. It will likely turn colder again, BUT we’re sort of going back to the cold to mild cycle into the middle of the month it looks like with no locking air mass for the Plains. So sort of all over the place.

Meanwhile good news on the moisture situation: the last two weeks have been rather prolific with over 2″ of moisture in the area.

That has allowed us to be removed from the moderate drought conditions that had spread the region over the past 6 weeks.

As a matter of fact with the exception of Northwest Missouri…we’re out of the drought (for now).

It’s been pushed west of here (for now).

Was this just a wet two weeks in a drought though? We’ll see, but there won’t be a lot of moisture locally for awhile I think. This recent two-week shot will carry us for quite some time though considering everything is pretty dormant.

Ray Kopek with the feature photo from Santa Monica, Calif.

Joe

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