Joe’s Weather Blog: Big Cold Front Coming

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My last blog certainly gave you a heads up about what may happen later this week and the data continues to point to a significant storm with an attached cold front to affect the Upper Plains and Midwest into the weekend.

The energy in question is the final piece of a storm complex spinning in the NE Pacific Ocean. this complex has been spinning out powerful disturbances into NW Canada and the PAC NW for the last several days…well the final piece will be the end of the complex. Here is the satellite picture showing the storm off the coast of Canada.

 

This energy will move through the NW part of the country…dive into the central Rockies and then kick out through the western Plains…you can see the core of the storm better by tracking it at 18,000 feet via our 500 mb maps.

 

There are obvious questions about the exact path of the storm, and since this energy is still out in the data void N Pacific Ocean there will be changes, but odds favor a strong cold front

Here is the EURO forecast which has finally figured things out in the last couple of runs…the GFS certainly beat the EURO with the ideas with this storm from a few days ago.

ScreenHunter_01 Oct

Ahead of the front, highs may be n the 80s on Friday…then behind the front temperatures should be 20-30+ degrees colder…and the winds will be blowing at 20-30 MPH. All this will happen sometime on Friday into Friday night. Right now the weekend looks like it will be fine…blustery on Saturday then bright and cool on Sunday.

How much rain we get out of this is still a question in my mind…there should be thunderstorms but will they get their act together farther east away from the KC area…and regardless of the line…it will be flying through the region, so the rainfall amounts may not be that significant…let’s see how things shape up. There is a chance of severe weather in the Plains as well…although it may not directly affect us…here is the early forecast from the SPC…showing the I-80 corridor with the better chance since they will be closer to the better dynamics of the storm.

 

Something that I will be watching for you as well. Then there is the matter of the chilly air…this is something that gardeners should be watching for Sunday AM especially if you are in N MO and NE KS…take a look at the forecast lows off the EURO model for Sunday morning…showing near 40° temperatures. Click on that image to make it larger and more readable.

ScreenHunter_02 Oct. 01 07.35

I can’t rule out some patchy frost closer to the Metro area so let’s pay attention to those lows is you have sensitive plants for N MO we’re entering the time of the average 1st freeze of the season…so some pockets up there will be vulnerable at this point.

 

It’s a little early for a definitive timeline for the weekend changes…I will work on that tomorrow as we get a better idea on the storm as it approaches the US mainland.

Have a great Tuesday…also be aware that there may be a few showers in the region on Thursday…more on that with KR/MB/MT on the news…

Joe

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