Joe’s Weather Blog: Chasing the rain chances today and tonight (WED-4/28)

Weather

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — I know I keep harping on this, but it still is somewhat interesting to me In Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska, so far this year there have been 10 tornadoes…combined.

Pretty fascinating to me that here through the end of April that’s where we stand and odds are there won’t be a tornado in these four states for the rest of the month and into early May.

Keep in mind that we typically talk about our severe weather “season” being April, May and June. Anecdotally, it seems to me that we’ve been pushing that a bit these last few years into more of a May-into-middle-June trend than an April trend. Obviously we can get tornadoes in ANY month of the year as we’ve seen, but there hasn’t even been much overall severe weather in the same four states.

Not sure how long we can keep that going, but not many are complaining.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers and storms developing through the day. Highs in the lower to middle 70s. Some locally heavy rains are possible, especially in some of the heavier storms that may be around. The overall heaviest rains look to be south of the Metro.

Tonight: Rain and some storms are possible. Lows in the mid 50s.

Tomorrow: Clearing out into a nice afternoon with highs into the lower 70s. Breezy as well.

Friday: Nice. Cool 40s in the morning then well into the 70s in the afternoon.

Weekend: Nice with highs 80-85°.

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Discussion:

So yeah, not many complaints so far about the lack of stronger to severe storms locally. We just haven’t had all the ingredients to come together and even today, despite a front in the area and a somewhat unstable air mass building this afternoon, it’s going to be a struggle to get severe storms locally. Things just aren’t coming together it appears.

There will be rain out there but I stressed time after time last night that there would be hours of dry time and that seems to be working out. There are going to be some scattered showers today, and the activity should perhaps become a bit more widespread later this afternoon into tomorrow early morning. There will be some instability, but not a ton, so the storms should mostly remain below severe limits I think for most areas.

The better chances of stronger to severe storms will reside south of the region.

Here is a broad look at radar:

The front itself is off towards the north and west of the Metro this morning and is slowly working towards the south and east. At this point there isn’t really a strong area low pressure along the front to help create a focus for stronger storms locally.

The atmosphere is more juicy down towards the I-44 corridor region as well and we can see that in the Precipitable Water product this morning. This helps show us the moisture content in the lower and middle part of the atmosphere so that IF storms come together they either do or don’t have more moisture to work with.

Our short-term modeling shows that this extra saturation and extra moisture will stay towards the Lakes and I-44 corridor through the day today and tonight.

For timing…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM and 3Z is 10PM

The morning run of the HRRR (which hasn’t had the greatest run largely with our rain prospects) has this idea…

Notice the line of storms that sort of comes together and moves through during the mid-to-late afternoon. That would be the front sliding into the area.

Before then though the showers and storms will be around as things are developing as I type this blog up.

You can see that the overall heaviest rains will be more towards the Ozarks region. Some pretty beefy totals down there, in excess of 3-5″ perhaps.

Flood Watches are in effect down there. With flood warnings in effect for some of the counties towards Oklahoma as well.

There are some signals of perhaps some stronger storms early next week, and then again as we head into the first half of May. May is the most active month for tornadoes in Missouri and Kansas. So far there have been six totaled this season. That can change quickly during this time of the year.

The feature photo comes from Mark Mccoy of the big full moon from the other night.

Joe

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